Insured losses from the March earthquake can be controlled

Credit rating agency Fitch says insured losses from the powerful 7.4-magnitude earthquake that struck northeastern Japan on March 9, 2022 are likely to be manageable, with little impact on the earnings of insurers other than life.

The three non-life Japanese groups — Tokio Marine Holdings, MS&AD Insurance Group Holdings, and Sompo Holdings — had diversified portfolios, and in fact, earthquakes represented relatively small underwriting risks for Japanese non-life insurers.

Fitch estimates total net insured losses from the earthquake to range from 15 billion yen ($121.5 million) to roughly 30 billion yen, roughly the same amount as the 7.3-magnitude earthquake in northeastern Japan on February 13, 2021. For the year The fiscal ending in March 2022 is about 1 trillion Japanese yen, which means that the insured loss from the March 2022 earthquake is likely to be much less than 5% of total profits, which is within the natural disaster budget of Japanese insurance companies.

Earthquake risk for Japanese households is managed by the government, with the net being kept low by private insurance companies other than life insurance. The net exposure of insurers other than life to corporate seismic risk is also small, with insurers tending to avoid major seismic risks in Japan but instead largely shifting exposure to major European and US reinsurers to reduce retention.

Similarly, exposure of non-life insurers to business interruption risk from earthquake events remains limited. Fitch expects that insured loss from business interruption caused by the March 2022 earthquake is negligible, similar to insured marginal losses from the February 2021 earthquake.

While Fitch believes the impact from earthquakes will remain manageable for uninsured Japanese insurers, major typhoons in Japan are likely to have more serious dividends or capital impacts as insurers keep the risk high.

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