Herald: Can humans predict earthquakes?

April 02, 2022 | 05:52 AM IST Can humans predict earthquakes?

Raghav Gadgil

As a geologist, I am faced with the most pressing question, “Can earthquakes be predicted?” followed by “Do the animals feel the earthquake?” The answer is multifaceted. In ancient times, the divine explanation was that the imaginary supreme deity unleashed his wrath on heretics in society for not following the commandments. However, such made-up stories do not hold up in light of scientific progress.

“Earthquakes occur when two plates of rock meet at a fault line that can no longer resist the forces acting on them, and slip,” which is most common along plate boundaries. This geological process occurs underground, anywhere from the surface to depths of up to 700 km, within the Earth’s layers. Since the rocks are hard and brittle at these depths, the movement of the plates increases the pressure within the rocks which eventually gives way to the pressure being released in the form of a fracture.

Scientists have the moral responsibility to minimize the loss of human life by developing techniques to predict earthquakes using deterministic variables. Forecasts of such a catastrophe seek to analyze precursor events with statistical coherence to earthquake occurrence. Geologists all over the world have experimented with several algorithms that take into account many factors related to stress build-up in the crust, movement of plates, anomalous release of gases, changes in groundwater or changes in the electrical conductivity of crustal materials, etc., using a large number of sophisticated geophysical devices. These parameters are very heterogeneous and affect each other in a very sensitive and complex way. An earthquake generates energy that travels around the world in the form of two types of waves, and if we follow these waves, it is possible to predict an impending disaster, albeit in just a few seconds.

The inability of science to provide a satisfactory answer to this question opened the doors to various instances of strange animal behavior before the earthquake. One study from 2018 highlighted that the search term “earthquake precursor” on Google yielded 28,000 results, while a search on the Web of Science yielded 2,327 results. This discrepancy between public perception and scientific research shows that speculation and longing for sensations exist on the one hand, and complete rejection exists on the other.

In fact, this behavior may be affected by some parameters that are not yet known. One also needs to evaluate the alleged ‘odd’ behavior that has proven to be unusual within the group of animals under study. Scientists may also have a bias in associating any behavioral change with the future chance of an earthquake.

Finally, some have proposed the theory of “pain waves” that cause earthquakes. The theory maintains that intense stimulation of pain receptors in living organisms (such as in animals that are slaughtered) produces a signal that is transmitted to the brain that makes it aware of ‘pain’, emitting pain waves that travel through the cortex and tear it apart. Here, I stress that equating the subjective experience of “pain” with the objective reality of “waves” is a work of fiction!

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