Strong earthquakes likely in Kyushu, Okinawa within 30 years

Tokyo is not alone at risk of a strong earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher within 30 years. Experts say the same applies to the southern islands of Kyushu and Okinawa.

The Government Headquarters for the Promotion of Earthquake Research said on March 25 that there is an approximately 80 percent chance of an earthquake in the 7- to 7.5-magnitude range hitting the Hyjanada Sea off Miyazaki Prefecture, and that there is a 90 percent or higher probability of such an earthquake. About Yonagunijima Island in Okinawa Prefecture.

Experts also said earthquakes of around 8 magnitude could occur in Hyuganada as well as around the southwestern Nancy Islands, including Yonagunijima.

“The available data on these offshore areas are limited compared to the inland areas,” said Naoshi Hirata, head of the Seismic Research Committee at headquarters. “There is still a great deal of uncertainty, and even stronger earthquakes and tsunamis could strike.”

Asahi Shimbun

Since 1919, Hyugannada and around Yonagunima have been hit by Class VII earthquakes five and 12 times, respectively.

The risk of an earthquake of magnitude 7 to 7.5 is estimated to be about 60 percent in areas northwest of the Nancy Islands, which lie north of the main island of Okinawa. The probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 to 7.4 in a plate sinking in the waters of Akinada, Ionada and Bongo Suido has been estimated at 40 percent.

The headquarters said that the earthquake that hit Hyugannada in 1662 may have been a massive earthquake and an 8-magnitude earthquake occurred around the Nancy Islands in 1911, and an 8-magnitude earthquake could occur in these two areas in the future.

The headquarters also released the results of the first long-term assessment of potential earthquakes along active offshore fault lines.

The probability of an earthquake of magnitude 7 or higher is estimated at 8 to 13 percent in the waters off Tottori Prefecture across Kyushu in the southwestern part of the Sea of ​​Japan.

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