He explained: Why Delhi earthquakes are not a signal

Written by Amitabh Sinha
| Pune

Published: 9 June 2020 4:30:41 AM

A fictitious earthquake preparedness exercise in Delhi, conducted by national and disaster management authorities in Delhi. (Praveen Kanna / Explicit Archive)

An earthquake of 2.1 magnitude was detected near Delhi on Monday. This was the small eleventh earthquake that had been registered in and around Delhi since May, and it was the strongest of which had a magnitude of 3.4. These recent earthquakes have sparked discussions about the possibility of increasing earthquakes around Delhi, and fears of an imminent large earthquake soon. None of these concerns have any scientific basis.

Is it unusual for Delhi to see so many earthquakes in such a short time?

Scientists unequivocally confirm that there is no unusual seismic activity that has occurred around Delhi in the past few months. “There is absolutely nothing happening in Delhi that can be described as unusual or abnormal,” said Venet Gillot, former head of the National Seismology Center in Delhi, who now works for the Hyderabad-based National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI).

“If you look at the catalog of earthquakes, then Delhi and the surrounding areas, and this will extend until Jaipur, Ajmer, Mount Abbot, and Eravallis, and it is usually exposed between two and three earthquakes with a magnitude of 2.5 and above every month. But there are monthly and annual differences as well. Geological processes and earthquakes are not Very smooth, so sometimes you would expect to see more earthquakes as well. I’m sure nothing special has happened in Delhi in the past two months. ”

The detection of earthquakes, especially those of lesser magnitude, that are recorded in a region depends on the number of seismographs installed in that region. The area around Delhi has the largest concentration of seismometers anywhere in the country, even more than the Himalayan region that is most seismically active. Of the 115 detectors installed in the country, 16 are in or around Delhi. As a result, even the smallest earthquakes, which most people do not feel, are recorded and this information is publicly available.

Do these small earthquakes predict a bigger earthquake?

Earthquakes of four or fewer cause hardly any damage anywhere and are often of no importance for practical purposes. Thousands of these earthquakes are recorded around the world every year, most of them are calm. And they certainly do not indicate any major upcoming event.

“The concept of aftershocks is something that is largely applied to cognition. When a major event occurs, all the smaller earthquakes that have occurred in that region in the recent past are classified as tremors. Anterior tremors are post-event definitions. Description does not exist before an event occurs “All this talk of a major earthquake in Delhi is totally unfounded,” said Harsh Gupta, one of India’s most prominent seismologists and former director of the National Nuclear Resources Network (NGRI).

A major earthquake may occur. Nobody can rule it out. But unpredictable. So to say that these small earthquakes are a prelude to the big earthquake is completely unscientific.

So what is the sign of an upcoming earthquake?

Scientists have been working for years to identify the “precursors” for an earthquake, but they have so far been unsuccessful. Some special earthquakes, caused by volcanic activity, can be predicted to some extent – Gillot calls them “more behavior” than others – but nothing else.

Predicting earthquakes in an area like Delhi is more difficult because the location is not located on any fault lines. “I would like to say that we still understand quite a bit about the tectonics of the Himalayas, where two tectonic pages meet each other. But Delhi does not lie on the plate boundaries. It is on one plate, and seismic activity is generated by internal distortions. Here, we understand less. So we understand less. , It is not possible to anticipate earthquakes in advance.

The Himalayas, which stretch from Hindu Kush to the northeast and head south to Southeast Asia, are seismic and one of the most active regions in the world. The region has experienced many major earthquakes in the past, most recently in 2015 in Nepal.

Does Kabir come to the area?

Scientists say the Himalayas are due to a major earthquake of 8 or higher. This is because they were able to measure the energy trapped under the surface as a result of one tectonic plate trying to move under the other plate. But even here, scientists have no idea when this great earthquake will happen. The prediction about Big is based only on estimating the energy ready to be released.

A 6-magnitude earthquake is usually associated with the type of energy released by the atomic bomb in Hiroshima. Since the magnitude of earthquakes is measured on a logarithmic scale, an earthquake with a magnitude of 7 is 32 times stronger than an earthquake of magnitude 6. Accordingly, an 8-magnitude earthquake would be 1,000 times stronger than a 6-magnitude event.

Gupta even said the argument that smaller earthquakes help release energy little by little so that a major earthquake is not necessary either. “The Delhi region has experienced earthquakes with a magnitude of five to six, but fortunately it has not been in the past fifty or sixty years … You will need 1,000 quakes with a magnitude of 4 to launch the equivalent of a quake with a magnitude of 6 degrees.” These arguments are unfounded, “he said.

So, does someone come to Delhi?

Nobody knows, Gupta said, but a more relevant question is what if we knew. “Suppose we know that a 6-magnitude earthquake will happen in Delhi at 11 am tomorrow. What can we do next? Can we evacuate the entire city? Is this possible? The prediction will not make us safe against earthquakes. The important thing is that we need to make our structures resist For earthquakes, we need to follow the exercises described when an event occurs, everyone should know what is the best place to run when we are in the office, at home or in open spaces. These types of discussions are meaningful. Instead, what we see are speculations, rumors and information Baked in public discussions.

So a major earthquake is largely possible in Delhi. Nobody excludes this possibility. But it will happen when you have to. Earthquakes still want not to be announced. They do not like to knock on our doors with tremors.

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