A Marine Le Pen win would shock markets as much as Trump and Brexit

These two surprises are now believed to have resulted from widespread unhappiness about the “state of the nation” and the perception of large parts of the electorate that they were worse off economically. Interestingly, opinion polls reveal that the French people are largely unhappy with the current state of France and its own economic situation. Many people will blame Macron.

His first term was already disappointing. He certainly failed to realize his ambition to “build a new France”. In reality, though, the French economy did not do so badly under his rule. Of course, inflation is a major concern – as it is everywhere. It currently operates at 5.1 percent, compared to 1.8 percent for average wage growth. So the real salary is declining.

However, GDP is slightly above its pre-Covid level. Moreover, although the ride has been bumpy due to the pandemic, the average rate of GDP growth under Macron has been higher than under his predecessors, Sarkozy and Hollande. At 7%, unemployment is impressively low, at least by French standards. In fact, it hasn’t been this low since the early 1980s. This is partly due to Macron’s labor market reforms that have encouraged employment.

The really dangerous weak spot in French economic performance is public finance. In 2021, the government deficit was 6.5 percent of GDP and the debt ratio was 113 percent. France now has the fourth largest market for government bonds in the world, after the United States, China and Japan. This is not a badge of honor but an indication of potential weakness. Macron aims to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP in 2027. But achieving that is likely to prove a difficult task.

How can Le Pen’s victory change this situation? It is often described as right-wing populism. In fact, this label is not useful. It is nationalist and in France, in terms of economic matters, it involves policies that we normally consider left-wing. It is protectionist and intrusive.

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