Japan is at risk of another electricity crisis next winter

Japan may experience another energy crisis next winter as demand outstrips supply, according to an analysis from the country’s grid coordinator.

The Transmission Operators Regional Coordination Organization said in a report on Tuesday that the power reserve ratio, which measures available spare capacity, could turn negative for the Tokyo region in January and February 2023 if the winter turns out to be very cold. The OCCTO said other parts of the country could also see rates fall below the 3% minimum often required to maintain the energy balance during those months.

This is the second consecutive winter that Japan has projected an electricity shortfall in the capital, highlighting how the grid is stretching by retiring old power plants and sporadic increases in renewables. The report also comes just weeks after the capital and its surrounding areas experienced widespread power outages due to freezing temperatures, rainy skies and shutdowns of generators due to an earlier earthquake.

OCCTO said Japan may need to restart some old and inefficient thermal power plants for the upcoming winter months, but even that may not be enough to increase electricity reserve margins. According to the network coordinator, demand-limiting measures should be considered beforehand.

Many of the gas and coal-fired power plants that were demolished by last month’s earthquake have yet to resume. The OCCTO said it was unclear when it would be brought back up and running. The grid coordinator also expects the power supply to be tight during the peak summer months in case of extreme heat. It is estimated that the proportion of power reserve will shrink to 3% in Tokyo and two other regions in July.

The grid coordinator said that the planned ongoing work at Kyushu Electric Power Corporation’s Jinkai nuclear plant could reduce available supplies. The facility said in March that the plant’s Unit 3, which was originally scheduled to restart on June 25, will return to work on January 20. Its Unit 4 will be undergoing planned maintenance until February.

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