Hokkaido Unprepared for Winter Marine Earthquakes and Destruction of Ice Tsunami

Eleven years have passed since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the Kushiro and Nemuro regions of eastern Hokkaido still urgently need to put in place disaster prevention measures for the mid-winter period — including ways to avoid damage from so-called glacial or giant tsunamis. Waves carrying rafts of ice.

According to earthquake damage estimates released by the government in December, up to 200,000 people could die if a massive earthquake hits the Japan Trench or the Chishima Trench off the coast of Hokkaido and the northeastern region of Tohoku during the winter, when it becomes more difficult. For people to evacuate. But the report said the death toll could drop dramatically if people were able to evacuate quickly. Experts point out the need to consider disaster prevention measures in detail, especially in winter.

Mitsugo Kawamorita, 80, from Hamanaka in Kushiro, recalls the glacial tsunami caused by an earthquake off the coast of Tokachi, Hokkaido, on March 4, 1952. — splitting it in two,” he said.

The 8.2-magnitude earthquake triggered icy tsunami waves three to four meters high that hit areas including Hamanaka. Because of the disaster, 33 people were killed or missing in Hokkaido and 815 homes were completely destroyed. In Hamanaka alone, icy tsunamis completely destroyed 62 homes and killed three people.

two meters

Kawamoreta, who was in fourth grade at Kiritapu Primary School in Hamanaka, said he was in a classroom when “the school building shook as if it was going to collapse.”

He ran out of the window in his indoor shoes, climbed a mountain at the back of the schoolhouse and watched the icy tsunami approaching.

After the waves receded, huge ice blocks, each more than two meters high, were left on the streets and scattered among the ruins. The aftershocks continued throughout the day. During the night, Kawamorita and about 10 family members and relatives found shelter in a trench beside a neighborhood street that leads to higher ground.

“I was sticking to a litter and wearing a blanket to spend the night,” Kawamoreta said, recalling the experience. “But it was still very cold, and I really felt the need to prepare.”

The government estimated that besides the approximately 200,000 deaths that could occur in Hokkaido and the Tohoku region combined from a massive earthquake off northern Japan, an earthquake along the Chishima Trench could completely destroy about 77,000 homes, while an earthquake along the Japan Trench could That causes the collapse of about 211,000 homes.

If the effects of floating ice are taken into account in conjunction with the tsunami, the number of destroyed homes could increase by 3,000 to 5,000.

The volume of floating sea ice routinely pushed ashore in Hamanaka and other coastal areas facing the Pacific Ocean in eastern Hokkaido is trending downward due to global warming, but a certain amount still reaches shores each year.

According to Shinji Kyoka, a researcher at the Civil Engineering Research Institute for the Cold Region in Sapporo, ice tsunamis can cause a phenomenon called “ice jam” where floating sea ice accumulates in spaces between buildings and on streets.

The tsunami is then prevented by the accumulating ice and flows into open spaces, resulting in faster and higher levels of flooding than would otherwise be expected.

“You should never feel safe enough even after you’ve escaped,” he emphasized. “You should always consider evacuating to a higher place.”

evacuation drills

In an effort to illustrate disaster prevention challenges during the winter, the town of Hamanaka conducted evacuation drills last fall and moved people to three locations in the city, including the three-story Kiritabo High School.

The municipal government of Hamanaka required 53 residents who took part in the exercise to wear GPS devices, to measure the speed and duration of their movements.

Assuming that the tsunami would reach the city in 26 minutes and that people would start evacuating five minutes after the warning was issued, everyone who took part in the exercises managed to reach the shelters before the estimated time of the waves’ arrival.

But when the exercise was conducted with people evacuated 10 minutes after the warning, not a single person was able to reach the shelter before the supposed time of the tsunami’s arrival. When the evacuations began 20 minutes after the warning, only about 10 people managed to reach the shelters in time.

“I gave up carrying a backpack containing emergency food and water because it was heavy,” said Emiko Kono, a 62-year-old housewife who arrived at an evacuation shelter 21 minutes after leaving her home.

The municipal government is considering building an evacuation tower or outfitting the lifeboats, but it will likely take at least 10 years to get them ready.

An official with the municipal government’s disaster prevention office said residents “will basically have to evacuate by car.” But even evacuating by car will be difficult in the winter.

In the coastal district of Shinkawa in Hamanaka, the approximately 10 km prefectural road that is the main drive-by evacuation route is mountainous and the road surface tends to freeze during winter, increasing the risk of slip accidents. In March of last year, the slip caused more than 20 vehicles to pile up on the road.

“Driving to evacuate from a tsunami is threatening other people’s lives,” said Eiji Kono, former president of the district’s neighborhood association, which represents 124 families. He plans to evacuate to Kiritabo High School, which is about a 20-minute walk from his home.

“There is an urgent need to build an evacuation tower that can withstand the impact of floating ice and where people can get away from the cold,” said Munihito Ishiwari, head of the Kushiro Disaster Prevention Expert Network.

“Residents must also be prepared, with raincoats to prevent hypothermia and the evacuation of headlights at night.”

This section presents topics and issues from Hokkaido covered by the Hokkaido Shimbun, the prefecture’s largest newspaper. The original article was published on March 11th.

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