RTL Today – Constitutional earthquake: Nationalists look to strength as Northern Ireland holds ‘earthquake’ elections

A century after its fraught foundation, Northern Ireland looks set for a constitutional earthquake this week as the pro-Ireland Sinn Fein party is poised to win regional elections.

Apart from periods of direct rule by London, pro-UK unionists have monopolized power since Britain formed a predominantly Protestant state in 1921, when the rest of Ireland achieved self-rule.

But pollsters expect Sinn Fein, once the political arm of the paramilitary Irish Republican Army, to win the elections to the delegated assembly in Belfast.

The party took over as deputy leadership in a power-sharing deal with unionists when Northern Ireland made peace in 1998, after three decades of communal bloodshed.

Throughout the county, major streets and intersections are adorned with election posters. In Newry, near the border with Ireland, a Sinn Fein billboard shows that “Irish unity” is the “solution to Brexit”.

Sinn Fein leader Michelle O’Neill said: “There has been a catastrophic change in society, particularly in the wake of Brexit, something we didn’t vote for, but that was forced on us.”

But the party is downplaying the prospects for a united Ireland anytime soon, wary of alienating centrist voters and moderate unionists whose focus is on healthcare, education and the cost of living crisis across the UK.

Sinn Fein is leading in the poll by an average of six to seven points over the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), putting the Republican Party on the right track to take over as prime minister in the delegated government.

But the administration cannot act unless the party in second place agrees to share power – and it remains to be seen whether the DUP will stick to a previously unimaginable move for the Protestant union camp.

– We lose our identity –

In Lagan Valley Circle of DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson, a unitary face stands out from the red, white, and blue of the UK flag.

Number One in red urges voters to choose Donaldson as their first choice under Northern Ireland’s voting rules, which give voters the opportunity to rank candidates in order of preference.

The DUP was agitating London to scrap a trade protocol with the EU, fearing that Northern Ireland’s standing in the UK would be eroded by post-Brexit arrangements and the rise of Sinn Fein.

The party withdrew from the assembly this year in protest of the “Northern Ireland Protocol”, and the UK government says it is ready to scrap the agreement unless Brussels agrees to the changes.

The DUP, riven by infighting and warily watching a party more hard-line on the right, is issuing stern warnings that the protocol poses an existential threat to the union.

“When will the government and my prime minister regain our standing in the UK?” DUP Republican Representative Jim Shannon asked Boris Johnson in Parliament last week.

Brexit – which a majority in Northern Ireland voted against – has eroded the carefully crafted compromises that were embedded in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement.

The peace agreement saw London and Dublin agree to a cross-border referendum on whether Ireland should be fully reunified, if there was popular support for it.

But how popular support is defined has been deliberately left vague – and it is unclear whether this week’s Sinn Fein victory is anything to go by. The DDF claims the threat exists, as it tries to rally its base.

– ‘End mummering’ –

Sinn Fein is also advancing south of the border and hopes to break the historic grip on power of Ireland’s two largest parties in the next general election, which is due by 2025 but may come soon.

While the unionist and nationalist camps tie in Northern Ireland, polls suggest the unaligned centrist position is also poised for significant gains on Thursday.

“The days of appointments are over,” said Naomi Long, leader of the Alliance party, saying, “It is time to end this mummering around the office of the first minister and first deputy.”

The Alliance and two other small parties collectively held 11 of the 90 seats in the outgoing assembly.

“If they bring back the legislatures with 16, 17 and 18, it could lead to a substantive renegotiation of the Good Friday agreement,” David McCann, a commentator for political website Slugger O’Toole, told AFP.

Jacqueline Hearst, a lifelong union voter who lives in the coastal city of Larne, said she was voting for the coalition for the first time.

The 52-year-old employee said she was concerned about the impact of the EU protocol on trade, after noticing that “a lot of things in the supermarket are already disappearing”.

But these concerns were secondary to a Stormont dysfunction sparked by long-standing feuds between Sinn Fein and the DUP.

“We have to talk, and that’s the only way we’re going to go any further,” Hurst said.

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