Political earthquake shook Northern Ireland

A political earthquake shook British-ruled Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein, which until a generation ago was the political voice of the armed separatist movement, the Irish Republican Party, emerged as the winner in this week’s election.

It is the first time since the creation of Northern Ireland 101 years ago that a nationalist party – which emphasizes Irish rather than British identity – has won an election. It is the product, albeit unexpected, of a peace process that ended decades of separatist violence and gave all societies a stake in the democratic process.

Which is why the outcome of this election will make headlines around the world. Northern Ireland is a small region with a population of less than two million, but the peace agreement and power-sharing agreement there are a shining example of how to resolve a long-running separatist conflict. It has been proposed as a model for Kashmir if there is the political will to seek a negotiated end to the conflict. It formed the proposals put forward by Pakistani President Musharraf 15 years ago, which are widely seen as the most promising foundations for peace in the Kashmir Valley.

Sinn Féin (meaning “ourselves alone” in Irish) was for many years the political wing of the Irish Republican Army (IRA), which used bombs and bullets to try to force Britain out of Northern Ireland. The IRA has now renounced the use of violence and put aside its arsenals of weapons and explosives. Over the years, Sinn Fein has developed as a left-wing social democratic party which, while still seeking to end British rule, campaigns primarily on social and welfare issues.

Many Sinn Fein politicians are known as “clean skins” – too young to enlist in the IRA. The leader of the party in Northern Ireland is Michelle O’Neill, who is 45 and has never been a member of the IRA. “Today heralds a new era,” she commented, describing the election result as “a defining moment for politics and for our people.”

Election officers empty a ballot box to count votes during the Northern Ireland Assembly elections at the Meadowbank Sports Arena, in Magherafelt, Northern Ireland, May 6, 2022. Photo: REUTERS/Clodagh Kilcoyne

O’Neill comes from a powerful Republican family. Her father was in the IRA and served time in prison; His cousin was a member of the Irish Republican Army shot dead by British forces; Another cousin was wounded in an attack on a British army base.

To understand the enormity of Sinn Fein’s victory, it is necessary to explain a little of the twisted history of Northern Ireland. After a long and violent secession campaign, the greater part of Ireland seceded from Britain in the 1920s, the northeastern corner of the island of Ireland remained under British rule. This is what is now known as Northern Ireland.

While the rest of Ireland had an overwhelming Catholic majority and a strong Irish identity, Northern Ireland had a Protestant majority that considered itself British and threatened to revolt rather than be part of the Republic of Ireland. But Northern Ireland also has a large Catholic minority – currently just over 40% of the population – who resented British rule.

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Northern Ireland’s Catholics were discriminated against in jobs and social housing and were marginalized in a manipulated local electoral system. This sense of injustice bolstered Catholic support for the Irish Republican Army, which since 1969 began a well-organized armed struggle against British rule. More than 3,500 people – at least half of them civilians – have been killed over a 30-year period in what is euphemistically called “the unrest”.

In the 1990s, the British and Irish governments worked together to search for a lasting solution to the conflict in Northern Ireland. A new generation of IRA leaders were convinced that they could never achieve a military victory, and were willing to pursue electoral politics if they were assured of a fair chance.

The power-sharing agreement set forth in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement established a system in which both Protestants and Catholics would have a role in government. It also included a complete reconfiguration of the local police force, disbanding and disarming paramilitary groups, and releasing prisoners. There have been many difficult moments in Northern Ireland since 1998, but the agreement still stands.

Sinn Fein’s victory this week – with 29% of the first-preference vote, while his main Puritan rival got 21% – does not mean Northern Ireland will move away from being part of Britain. At least not yet. Sinn Fein has emerged as the largest party because it is seen as a modern and progressive political force. But it still has almost no support among the Protestants in Northern Ireland. Divisions between three rival pro-British parties backed by a Protestant majority contributed to Sinn Fein’s advance.

Under the power-sharing rules, Sinn Féin is now entitled to nominate a first minister to head the devolved government of Northern Ireland. But that Prime Minister cannot take office unless the second-ranking holder agrees to the appointment of a First Deputy Minister. Protestant unionists have been in the leadership seat in Northern Ireland for so long, they won’t find it easy to see a Catholic nationalist in the highest office.

An IRA street sign reading “No Entry” in Belfast. (Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported)

When the peace agreement was signed nearly a quarter century ago, no one expected the IRA’s political wing to be the main beneficiary. But Sinn Fein has convincingly demonstrated his commitment to democratic politics and his renunciation of violence. The example of an armed separatist movement that laid down its arms and successfully turned to electoral politics is one that deserves international attention.

For governments dealing with armed separatism, it provides a model for the inclusion of militants and their support base in the democratic process. For the separatists, who should know that the best they can do is start negotiations, this provides an opportunity to seek redress through peaceful means.

As the Irish peace process makes clear, achieving a peace agreement requires political courage and extraordinary qualities of leadership on all sides. It also means submitting to electoral judgment whether you like the outcome or not. Having an area of ​​peace, with space to heal old wounds, is in itself a major accomplishment.

Andrew Whitehead is a former BBC India correspondent and worked as a BBC Political Correspondent from Northern Ireland. He has a family in Northern Ireland too.

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