Tokyo will probably face a massive earthquake in the next 30 years. The only thing they can do is prepare

It’s 2:00am. I’m in bed and fast asleep. Suddenly, at full volume, every phone in the house begins blaring a heart-jolting siren.

It’s three piercing blasts of an alarm, and then a woman’s calm voice repeats one word: “Earthquake.”

There’s no time to think — just act.

I throw off the covers, my wife grabs our son and we duck under a table.

This isn’t a drill. The alerts are a warning that a strong earthquake is about to hit.

Every time I get one on my phone, I think: “Is this the big one? Day X?”

That’s the major earthquake with a 70 per cent probability of striking Tokyo some time in the next 30 years.

I wait. Will this time just be a rumble? Or the highest level on the Japanese seismic intensity scale: Shindo 7?

That’s where it’s impossible to remain standing or move without crawling. The earth shakes so much people may be thrown through the air.

Waiting under the table with my heart beating wildly, I feel a slight sway in my building — it’s only a Shindo 3.

Japan straddles four tectonic plates

I’ve experienced a few of these alerts in the past few years — and thankfully it’s always been the alert itself that’s the greatest shock.

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It can ring out over loudspeakers on train platforms, and interrupt radio stations.

But living with this risk is a reality of life in Japan, which lies on the Pacific Ring of Fire, an incredibly seismically active area.

The country occupies the intersection of four tectonic plates. The result has been events of unimaginable horror and carnage.

The Meiji-Sanriku earthquake of 1896 was barely felt by the residents along the coast of Tohoku, but moments later a huge tsunami the size of an 11-storey building roared in.

And in 1923, the Great Kanto Earthquake is believed to have shaken Tokyo and Yokohama for as long as 10 minutes.

A painting of the moment a fire tornado — sometimes called a dragon twist — killed tens of thousands of people in Tokyo in 1923.(Wikimedia Commons)

The powerful quake then triggered a 12-metre high tsunami. People who fled to an abandoned lot in downtown Tokyo were burned to death by a fire tornado.

More than 140,000 people were killed.

More recently, the March 2011 triple disaster of an earthquake, tsunami and Fukushima nuclear meltdown on Japan’s north-eastern coast remains firmly in the minds of everyone here.

The quake, which was a Shindo 7, or magnitude-9, was the strongest to strike the region since records began in the 19th century.

More than 18,000 people died when a huge earthquake and tsunami struck Japan on March 11, 2011.(Reuters: Asahi Shimbun)

Insurance company Swiss Re ranks the metropolitan area of Tokyo-Yokohama as “by far its most earthquake-threatened” area, with 30 million people potentially affected.

Professor Akira Fuse, an expert who simulates the impacts of natural disasters, says Government modelling suggests that if a 7.3-magnitude quake struck the capital, almost 10,000 people would die.

“Nearly 20,000 people will have serious injuries from the earthquake alone — they will survive the disaster but will be in severe condition,” he said.

The death toll could further spiral in the days after a significant disaster.

If there is a shortage of medical staff, there is a possibility that about 6,000 people among the 20,000 will die because of lack of treatment.

Ichiro Matsuo, a visiting professor from the University of Tokyo, is known as a ‘disaster master’ in Japan, and is renowned for his expertise on disaster preparations.

For him, another nightmare scenario would be a Shindo 7 earthquake and subsequent tsunami in the Nankai Trough on the country’s south coast.

Japan is vulnerable to tsunamis along its coastline. The March 2011 quake triggered a tsunami that may have reached 40 metres high in some areas.(Kyodo via Reuters)

“If the Nankai Trough quake happens, 320,000 people are expected to die if no measures are taken,” Professor Matsuo said.

“It’ll be a huge earthquake as it will occur from Shizuoka to Shikoku, Kyushu and Okinawa.”

Quakes are not the only looming threat for Japan

When it comes to natural disasters, Japan is one of the most exposed countries in the world.

“Japan faces earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic disaster, flood disaster — an array of catastrophe,” Professor Matsuo said.

Mount Fuji has not erupted since 1707, but it is still considered an active volcano.(NASA: Scott Kelly)

About 10 per cent of the world’s active volcanoes are in Japan, and perhaps its most famous one — Mount Fuji — could paralyse Tokyo within hours if it erupted.

Mount Fuji last erupted more than 300 years ago, but it is still active.

Occasionally it goes through periods of activity that can produce several hundred tremors a month.

A Japanese government panel has said any major eruption of Mount Fuji would rain so much ash on the capital, Tokyo, that its transportation network of trains and highways would grind to a halt and power plants would shut down.

The people of this disaster-prone nation are prepared from childhood to face the worst.

Many day-care s and schools hold regular evacuation drills.

School children take shelter under their desks during an earthquake simulation exercise in Tokyo.(Reuters: Issei Kato)

Skyscrapers are built with shock absorbers, and are designed to sway rather than topple during seismic activity.

While there are extremely strict building standards for earthquake-proofing, there are still many older, wooden houses that are at risk of collapsing or causing fires.

So much of the country’s disaster preparation comes down to personal responsibility.

Often people bolt furniture, like bookcases, to the wall so it won’t topple onto someone during an earthquake.

A ‘disaster kit’ often includes first aid supplies, food, face masks, water, a space blanket, a torch and a fire extinguisher.(ABC News: Yumi Asada)

Disaster kits filled with first aid supplies and provisions are a common feature in homes and offices.

The Government tells people to keep enough food, water and essential items to survive for up to a week before help can arrive.

But a great amount of effort is also put into preparing people emotionally for disaster.

A manual released by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government says that part of moving on after Day X will be to “accept the death of an acquaintance or loved one”.

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Late last year, the country’s public broadcaster NHK aired a week-long drama and series of programs forecasting the terrifying prospect of a major earthquake hitting Tokyo.

The idea is to get people thinking about what ‘the big one’ or Day X might actually look like.

What happens if Day X happens during the pandemic?

The coronavirus pandemic is proving to be an extraordinary challenge for authorities.

The Kobe earthquake of 1995 destroyed 240,000 homes, leaving many residents to shelter in evacuation s.(Reuters: Kimimasa Mayama)

As well as being an expert in disaster medical response, Professor Akira Fuse works in a Tokyo hospital emergency room dealing with COVID-19 patients as they come in.

Professor Fuse believes the coronavirus would only increase the potential death toll if a natural disaster struck this year.

“I fear a significant number of people will be unable to receive treatment and die… [and] if an infection spreads in a hospital, it will not be able to function,” he said.

After a spike of COVID-19 infections in Tokyo in April, the medical system initially struggled with an influx in patients seeking care.

“We got a glimpse of what could happen next, when a natural disaster happens,” Professor Fuse said.

“It turns into a situation where there are many patients all at once and that could or will trigger a medical collapse.”

Professor Matsuo believes if a big earthquake hits, about 7 million people will be forced to evacuate their homes.

“Where will these 7 million people go? There are not enough shelters,” he said.

Sheltering people in an evacuation during a pandemic risks another outbreak of COVID-19.(Reuters: Toru Hanai)

Having people packed into an evacuation could trigger an outbreak, according to Professor Fuse.

“Everyone gathers at a gymnasium and sleeps together in a crowded space,” he said.

“There are many things being done at evacuation s that we should definitely not do during a pandemic.”

On top of their usual rigorous disaster preparations, local governments are already considering how to deal with the coronavirus during a quake or flood.

Tokyo’s Government told the ABC it had been directed by the national Government to open more evacuation s than usual.

“We need to open as many evacuation shelters as possible and consider using hotels,” a spokesperson said.

“We also need to thoroughly carry out basic infection measures such as telling evacuees about handwashing and cough etiquettes, and it’s necessary to have sufficient ventilation and space for evacuees inside the shelters.”

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