Political “earthquake” leads to a tsunami of turnover of elected offices in Vermont

At first, US Senator Patrick Leahy was a Democrat last November. Then was U.S. Representative Peter Welch, Democrat, the following week. Thereafter, Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray in December and Secretary of State Jim Kondos in February. Finally, in a flurry of activity in early May, Treasurer Beth Pierce and Attorney General T.J. Donovan joined the list of top Vermont officials not seeking re-election this year.

In all, two of Vermont’s three members of Congress, and four of its six Montpellier executives are leaving their posts this year. Only Governor Phil Scott and Auditor Doug Hoover are seeking re-election. US Senator Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. He will not be re-elected until 2024.

Vermont hasn’t seen this many executive positions open since “Hey Jude” hit #1 on the Billboard Hot 100.

Lieutenant Geoff Molly Gray records video during a reproductive rights rally in front of the State House in Montpellier on Saturday, May 14th. Photo by Natalie Williams / VTDigger

And while the deadline for nominations wasn’t until May 26, a slew of state lawmakers have already announced their intentions to leave office — including more than a third of state senators and more than half of the House committee chairs — making the Vermont’s full cabinet reshuffle in January.

According to state archive Tanya Marshall, the last time Vermont had a similar level of executive turnover was in 1968, when five state officers chose not to seek reelection: Governor Phil Hove, Governor John Daly, Attorney General James Oakes, and Treasurer Peter. Hincks and reviewer Jay Gordon withdrew that year. The incumbent Secretary of State, Harry Cooley, was the only executive to run for re-election that year, and he was defeated — leading to a 100% change in the state’s most influential government positions the following January.

Counting executives and members of Congress, 2022 will see a higher turnover than 1968.

Secretary of State Jim Condos in Montpellier, November 10, 2020. File photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Condos, the current secretary of state, told VTDigger that this year’s election lineup is very exceptional because “Vermonters tend to keep incumbents in office if they do a good job.” What is different this year, he said, is the number of executives who have chosen to leave on their own terms.

Welch and Gray’s decisions to leave their current positions are closely related to Leahy’s decision to retire after nearly half a century in office. Welch nominates for Leahy seat and Gray for Welch seat.

Donovan cited personal reasons for leaving the position of attorney general. “After 16 years, I need a break,” he said of his stint in public office when he announced his retirement in early May. He was an All-Star player in Vermont’s Democratic field and had long been seen as a contender for a higher position in the future.

State Treasury Department Beth Pierce announced that she will not run for re-election during a press conference in Montpellier on Wednesday, May 4. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Pierce had been planning to run for a sixth term as treasurer, but changed course when she was diagnosed with cancer this spring. “I hate it because I love this job,” she told VTDigger in early May.

Apartments Kondos stepped down after serving as foreign minister since 2011. After more than 30 years in domestic and state politics, he said, “Sometimes it’s time for a new set of eyes to look at things.”

“You get to a certain point,” he said, “and you know when it’s time to go, and it’s time for new blood to come in.”

Chris Graf, a former longtime Vermont bureau chief for the Associated Press, said Leahy’s retirement caused an “earthquake” in the Vermont political scene. With relatively few statewide offices to contest political candidates and constantly re-election to voters, more qualified candidates get stuck in a bottleneck each cycle, he said.

But not this year.

“It’s a coincidence if you’ve been waiting so long to run for political office. Those years never came. Electoral politics often becomes an art or a domino game. You’re always waiting to see who moves, where and when. And we’ve gone many, many, many years without any change,” Graf said.

Vermont Attorney General T.J. Donovan in Burlington on September 14, 2021. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

Consequently, the resignations of Gray, Donovan, Pierce and Condos triggered a bevy of candidacy announcements.

The race for deputy governor — a largely ceremonial position often seen as a statewide stepping stone to a higher office — has so far drawn at least six contenders, including veteran lawmakers, newcomers and a former deputy governor looking to reclaim the position.

Washington State Attorney General Rory Tebow and Donovan’s former chief of staff, Charity Clark, have announced campaigns so far to become the state’s top attorney general.

Charity Clark announces her candidacy for the position of attorney general at a press conference in Winooski on Monday, May 16th. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

In the Democratic primary for secretary of state, Deputy Secretary of State Chris Winters, Montpellier city clerk John Odom and Rep. Sarah Copeland Hansas, a Bradford Democrat, are set to face off in August. (None of the Republicans has thrown their hats into the ring yet.)

To fill Pierce’s standing, former DFSA Commissioner Mike Pesciak is taking to the podium.

Dave Gram, a longtime Associated Press reporter who later served as a radio host and political columnist, told VTDigger that it was “kind of a strange set of coincidences” that led to this tidal wave of staff turnover.

“The opening of jobs in Washington has a serious multiplier effect, but that doesn’t explain all of that,” he said.

Vermont Republican Party Chairman Paul Dame doesn’t think this can be traced back to chance. The rush of federal dollars into Vermont, he said, “sort of covered a lot of potential problems,” allowing lawmakers to throw money into housing and workforce initiatives that Dame wasn’t convinced would solve the state’s long-term systemic issues.

Washington State Attorney General Rory Thibault announced that he is running for attorney general at City Hall Park in Berry on Friday, May 6. Photo by Natalie Williams / VTDigger

“It’s been a great year to come out on a high note. We just had a bunch of federal money. We’ve got a bunch of programs funded,” the lady said. “I think everyone sees the writing on the wall that two years from now, we’re going to be in a very different situation. And they’d rather go out now and let someone else carry the bag.”

There’s also the elephant in the room: the epidemic – and the countless toll for politicians and voters alike over the past two years. According to Condos, “What we don’t know is how Covid played a role in this.”

When Donovan announced his resignation, he said he was “fine” during the first year of the pandemic, but “I kind of hit a wall last year and really struggled with that decision.”

This year’s earthquake may have an aftershock. Sanders, the state’s youngest senator, will turn 83 by Election Day 2024 and has not said whether he will seek another six-year term in the Senate. Just this week, Scott announced his plans to run for a fourth term in November. Only two of his predecessors, Howard Dean and Richard Snelling, were elected to more than four terms.

Changes in the executive branch also have subsequent effects in the legislative branch. A number of lawmakers – Senator Becca Ballint, de Windham; Senator Keisha Ram Hinsdale, D-Chittenden; Senator Joe Benning, Republican of Caledonia; Rep. Charlie Kimball, Dee Woodstock and Copeland Hansas – are leaving the legislature this year to bid for a higher position.

Others, such as Senator Joshua Terenzini, Rutland and Senator Chris Pearson, have attributed their departures to personal circumstances. And more, as Senator Anthony Paulina, B/D Washington, and Senator Janet White, DW Windham, are retiring after years of service.

Gram suspects another dynamic is at play among outgoing lawmakers: He said young lawmakers are watching the heated competition in the Democratic primary for the US House of Representatives and rethinking their political futures.

Senate Pro Tempore President Becca Balint, D-Windham, responds to Zoom in Montpelier Jan. 5. Photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

“I think people are starting to realize that peace is crowded and they have to re-evaluate their political future in light of this new level of competition,” Gram said. “This is a healthy thing but I think it could have limited the ambitions of a few.”

Vermonters won’t know for sure until the May 26 application deadline how many lawmakers are choosing not to seek reelection this year.

Senator Alison Clarkson on February 13, 2019. File photo by Glenn Russell/VTDigger

But already more than a third of Vermont senators have indicated they will not return to the 30-member body, with 11 retirements announced so far. Among the other members, nine of the 15 House committee chairs announced plans to step down.

Senator Alison Clarkson, Senate Majority Leader Alison Clarkson, told VTDigger that the Chamber would “of course” lose some institutional knowledge, but not the ether. She held that previous lawmakers are only a phone call away, even if they weren’t “necessarily next to us in a chair.”

“Humans hate change,” she said, “yet change is inevitable.” “We need to embrace the change that will come upon us, and what will happen to us is a shift in the composition of the Senate. There is no point in fighting it.”

She said she expects (at least) 11 new “energizing” votes.

“We’re going to gain a lot of new energy and excitement and a new vision for the Senate, and that’s going to be exhilarating,” she said.

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