Political earthquake as liberals turn heart of Morrison

In a stunning moment in Australian politics, the Liberal Party’s heart has turned against the Morrison government and sent some of the leading figures out of politics, with Victoria swinging big for both Labor and Independents, and veteran Independents seizing the key. Liberal seats in Sydney.

Federal Treasurer and Liberal heir Josh Frydenberg is the biggest casualty, as Koyong lost to independent Monique Ryan. Fellow young Tim Wilson was also knocked out, losing to independent Zoe Daniel at Goldstein.

Labor is now in a position to form a minority government and may nonetheless win enough seats to form a government by itself.

The Liberals seem to have suffered a 5% swing in Victoria, also losing Chisholm and Higgins’ safe seat to Labor.

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In Sydney, there were other shocks: The Independent Allegra Spender was able to send MP Dave Sharma at Wentworth with ease. In Mackellar, which was once blue benches, Jason Valinsky is smashed by independent Sophie Scamps. And Killia Tink handily defeated moderate liberal Trent Zimmerman.

The swing against the government was also in the 5% range in NSW, but Labor also fell, appearing to have lost Fowler’s safe seat to Liberal-linked independent Dai Lee. Labour’s decision to parachute into former New South Wales Prime Minister Christina Keneally now appears costly.

Labor also struggled to get seats elsewhere, failing to make an impact in the Liberal vote in Tasmania, moving only to Brisbane in Queensland (albeit still in doubt, with a chance for the Greens as well), losing to the Greens and taking a chance on Griffiths. To watch the greens clinch Ryan.

In South Australia, a swing of nearly 6% against the government resulted in Boothby and Sturt’s fall into the hands of the Labor Party.

It was a better story for Labor in Western Australia, where expectations of a strong labor outcome were finally validated (after years of trying): workers picked Pierce, Swan, Curtin and Haslock and there seemed to be a strong chance in Moore.

As we write, Labor still lacks a majority, and still needs 4-5 seats to cut its way to 76. The most likely scenario is that a now huge group of Freelancers, the Greens and the usual suspects left Andrew Wilkie, Bob Cutter and Helen Haines to negotiate with both sides.

The success of veteran independents is so extraordinary that even their most ardent supporters were surprised by their success in the liberal-hearted seats, and an air of surprise and amazement among Tink supporters.

The profound nature of the liberal heart’s reaction may be a rupture that requires several elections to heal. Whether independents have a chance to leverage their power in a minority government is the remaining question for election night 2022.

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