Alpine earthquake series: Are we ready for the big event?

One of the biggest natural threats to New Zealand. Video / North and South

Faultlines is a partnership with North & South Magazine – the full interactive project can be found here.

The Alpine Fault is the longest natural straight line on Earth, extending more than 800 km of fault line between the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates.

The science is unequivocal: for the past 8000 years, there has been a major earthquake on the Alpine fault roughly every 300 years. the last one? 1717.

No one expected the intensity of the earthquake that devastated Christchurch in February 2011, or the magnitude of the earthquake that shook Kaikoura in 2016.

But as a result of research over the past two decades, we now know that there is a 75 percent chance that an earthquake will occur on the Alpine fault in the next 50 years, and an 82 percent chance that it will be more than eight on the Richter scale.

This – AF8, as it’s called – we can prepare for.

Take the intensity of standing over the epicenter in Christchurch in February 2011, which lasted just 30 seconds. Now imagine the intense shaking continuing for two to four minutes, traveling along the Southern Alps.

The Alpine Fault extends several hundred kilometers from near Milford Sound all the way to Nelson Lakes National Park. Pictures / North and South

The Alpine Fault line runs from just north of Milford Sound all the way to Maruia near Lewis Pass.

Scientists expect the rupture to be 8.2 degrees, but this is a measure of “seismic energy released,” not damage or vibration.

Perhaps more appropriate is the Mercalli scale, which is a measure of the severity of damage in any given location.

The strongest shaking will be on the west coast, 10 kilometers from the rift.

“Rocks and landslides will fall from the Alps, so if you’re anywhere near the mountains, it’s going to be very noisy,” says Dr. Carolyn Orkeston.

“We’re talking about a horizontal movement of up to eight metres.”

Orchiston is the flagship science of the AF8 campaign – a collaboration between the Civil Defense Emergency Department and Alpine Fault scientists to bring scientific evidence to the communities that need to hear it.

The overwhelming message from scholars and civil defense is: Get ready.

Engineers talk about something called a “black start”. If every power plant on the South Island went down, restarting would be extremely slow – like a series of dominoes cascading in the opposite direction.

Andrew Renton, Transpower’s chief principal engineer, believes a nationwide blackout is possible but not likely. However, some areas will certainly be “islands” – the technical term for an isolated area without electricity. The most obvious candidate: West Coast.

The consequences of power outages for several hours, several weeks or more are alarming.

Energy is urgently needed for medical equipment, food supplies and heating. But the most significant, according to University of Canterbury professor Thomas Wilson, is the power loss for telecommunications.

“This will be the biggest challenge of all.”

Wilson predicts that it could take more than a year to return power to the West Coast.

No one expected state Highway 73 to be open for several months after the Alpine Fault ruptured. Nor is much of the Trans Alpine railway likely to remain the same.

“With the aftershocks continuing and more landslides, they will make road or rail repairs dangerous for months, maybe years,” Wilson says.

Westland District CEO, Simon Bastion. Pictures / North and South

Westland District CEO Simon Bastion acknowledges that Hokitika is right in the middle of where it will make a big impact.

“The problem with the West Coast and Westland is its isolation. We rely heavily on our infrastructure, particularly the roads in and out of the West Coast.”

He says there are only three ways and three ways out and all of those will be in danger.

“The biggest concern for our residents is the length of the isolation period. Three weeks to six weeks we’re dealing with it well but then we will find limitations around ensuring supplies get to those sensitive areas.”

The Civil Defense has installed a huge container near Hokitika Airport, which will serve as the headquarters and is slowly stacking emergency food and equipment.

Most of Hokitika is not far from sea level but Seaview Lodge, a historic building that was a former mental hospital, sits on a balcony above the city and ocean and will be used for evacuations.

The implications for people who need urgent medical care are horrific, too.

There is one major hospital on the West Coast, the newly constructed Te Nīkau Gray Hospital and Health Center in Greymouth.

Fortunately, planners and architects designed a key component of the hospital with AF8 in mind. The Integrated Family Health Center, which contains triage and theater facilities, was built to “Importance Level 4” standards to withstand major seismic events.

The alpine fault can be seen above ground in Ouataroua on the west coast. Photography / Jason Blair

There are smaller health centers in Reefton and Westport, and in other cities they are served by local medical centers. The difficulty is getting the wounded there.

Helicopters on the ground in the area could be damaged and rendered inoperable. Any immediate emergency air response may have to come from the east side of the main division.

Each of the six South Island regions operates under a comprehensive civil defense emergency management plan known as SAFER – the South Island’s Southern Alpine Fault Earthquake Response.

Claire Brown, of West Coast Regional Council, is the director of Coastal Emergency and Natural Hazards Management.

She explained that a tremendous amount of work has been done in the past few years in terms of regional preparedness – many civil defense teams are participating in exercises, containers with emergency equipment and food pantries installed in most towns and settlements. But the most important aspect is talking directly to the communities.

“Family readiness is the most important place to start,” Brown says.

“For example, having an emergency water supply, enough for a family to have drinking water for at least three days. If every home on the coast did this thing, we would be significantly more prepared.”

It’s hard to think of how societies will cope, not just in the immediate aftermath, but in the months and years that follow. If it takes up to six months or more to repair many bridges up and down the coast, will many people who live in Te Tay or Putini have to go elsewhere?

The sustainability of West Coast communities is a major concern for Dr. Carolyn Urkeston.

“People are intimately connected to this landscape. They won’t want to leave but I think there’s a tipping point where the government will say, ‘We can’t restore services, we can’t restore the power grid,’ you’re going to have, temporarily, hopefully, to leave.”

And if that happens, she asks, “Do people come back?”

Westland County Mayor Bruce Smith warns against underestimating the power of coasters.

“You have descendants of more than five generations who live here. They are not going anywhere. And the further south you go, the more determined they are, and the more difficult it is to deal with them.”

Orkeston notes that the aftermath of the Christchurch earthquake shows how reluctant people are to stay away.

“No one wanted to leave their house and go into temporary housing,” Orchiston says. “Even if their home is polluted, they’d rather camp in their garden than leave.”

“They have a really deep connection to this place. You constantly wonder about the resilience of society – what’s the tipping point? How do we prioritize restoring infrastructure to enable people to stay where they are?”

For more information on AF8 visit the website and for the best way to prepare visit getready.govt.nz

Public interest journalism funded by NZ On Air

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