Was Alaska hit by an earthquake larger than 9.2 before recent records began?

Anchorage, Alaska (KTUU) – The Great Alaskan earthquake of magnitude 9.2 that struck Prince William Sound on March 27, 1964 is known as the largest earthquake to ever hit Alaska and the second largest recorded in the world.

But, was there an earthquake larger than that in Alaska before the recent recording mentioned?

USGS research geologist Rob Witter said the science behind the answer is changing.

“About seven years ago, there was a belief that there might be an earthquake bigger than the 1964 earthquake,” he said. “But today, new data found on Kodiak Island suggests that magnitude 9.2 may be one of the largest, if not the largest, in the recent past. And in the recent past, remember I’m talking about thousands of years.”

He said there have been previous earthquakes comparable in size to the 1964 earthquake, but scientists could not accurately measure their size.

“The interval between earthquakes of this size is about 600 years,” he said. “However, in the rest of the world along subduction zones, such as the ones we live in, earthquakes have been observed to be unpredictable.”

Scientists cannot predict earthquakes. Witter said they don’t know when the next giant earthquake might strike south-central Alaska.

“Over the past 4,000 years, there have been about six more earthquakes in the Prince William Sound region that rivaled the 1964 earthquake,” he said.

But how do scientists know if an earthquake the size of the 1964 earthquake has occurred?

“We have evidence, mostly along the coast at Turnagain Arm in Girdwood and in parts of Prince William Sound, including the Copper River Delta, where the last earthquake occurred before the 1964 earthquake about 800 to 850 years ago,” Witter said.

“It may have rivaled the magnitude of the 1964 earthquake, but there is some evidence from Kodiak Island to suggest that the earthquake may not have included the fault below Kodiak Island,” he said.

That might make the prehistoric earthquake a little smaller, he said, but might still be close to a magnitude 9.

“We are talking about giants here. And the geological evidence that we use to make these judgments is very primitive. So, there is a lot of uncertainty,” he said.

To help figure out a time frame for when these earthquakes occurred, scientists conducted radiocarbon analyzes on trees and soil.

“Age estimates may extend to 100 years or more,” he said. “So, we have kind of vague ideas about when it happened, but we know for sure that it happened.”

To find earthquakes like these, Witter said scientists are doing the dirty work.

“We dig in the dirt along the coast. We go out into the bluffs, like the Girdwood Ghost Forest bluff, and we use shovels and other equipment to dig into the fossil record of earthquakes,” he said. “We also use surveyors to measure the heights of these various buried soils or other forms of evidence and we typically measure them in relation to sea level to understand how much an earthquake caused the site to rise or fall.”

Witter said that if you go to coastal towns like Whittier or Seward, it’s important to be aware of local evacuation plans. Those are available online.

Copyright 2022 KTUU. All rights reserved.

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