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Editorial: A volcano near Mammoth Lakes didn’t erupt in 1982 – but the city did

Editorial: A volcano near Mammoth Lakes didn’t erupt in 1982 – but the city did

 


In the lead-up to Memorial Day weekend in 1982, residents of Mammoth Lakes woke up to a Los Angeles Times headline that said: “Mammoth area tremors hint at volcanoes.” The report shook the area, but not in the way residents were warned to expect.

A series of small earthquakes near Mammoth Lakes in the eastern Sierra has “potentially some kind of volcanic activity going on there,” the article began. USGS scientists were planning to put the area on a volcanic “notice” or “watch” state due to earthquake swarms and other monitoring data.

The agency has located a potential eruption site about two miles from Mammoth Lakes at the edge of the so-called Long Valley, but it is in fact a collapsed crater that was formed about 760,000 years ago by a violent eruption. Subsequent publications teased possible volcanic activity in the early 1980s, with one describing inaccurately “fermenting lava eruptions”.

The blind-biased population was outraged, especially after weeks and months came and went, and nothing happened. US Geological Survey scientists found threatening messages in their cars. Their agency was ridiculed locally in the name of the US Guess Survey.

Scientists tried to repair the walls. They said they wanted to teach the public how to live with an active volcano. It had only been two years since Mount St. Helens erupted; It remains the deadliest volcanic eruption in US history and has killed 57 people. The earthquake was preceded by swarms.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) has confirmed that it has issued a lower-level volcano warning alert. It was not an announcement of imminent death, but rather a signal to step up monitoring efforts and make logical preparations such as putting together an emergency kit and making an evacuation plan.

But the damage was done. The volcano did not erupt. The Times article set off what the newspaper later described as a “summer of discontent”.

Tourism deteriorated. Dozens of businesses have reportedly closed. Real estate agents claimed that sales fell by as much as 50% due to the “volcanic terror” created by the media. About 40% of Mammoth Lake’s population – more than 2,000 people – was said to have left the city within the next two years.

Some local critics suggested that the biggest threat to society was not a volcanic eruption, but a media distortion of the volcano’s story.

David B. Hill, the scientist responsible for USGS monitoring of the Mammoth District, identified him as the enemy. Years later, Hill told me, “A real estate agent told me I should watch what I say because someone might put a bomb in my car.”

Restaurants and hotels in Mammoth Lakes have posted signs that read: Geologists are not welcome.

In 1997, Hollywood referred to the Mammoth/Long Valley saga by name in the disaster thriller “Dante’s Peak,” which is about a small mountain village in the Northwest in denial as a dormant volcano begins to rise. Pierce Brosnan starred as a volcanologist for the USGS, briefly shining a career as a geological researcher. This didn’t exactly help things.

After the fiasco of 1982, Hill takes on the task of mending the fractured relationship between the city and the scientists trying to protect it. He made endless journeys between his office in Menlo Park and Mammoth Lakes, hoping to sow and then establish trust between those who live next to the volcano and those who view it. The relationship has stabilized. But not overnight.

In 1998 when I first met Hill, who has a PhD in geophysics, he was handing out stacks of a four-page pamphlet called Living with a Restless Volcano and distributing them to schools and Mono County officials. His career with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) spanned over 58 years before Hill’s death in 2018.

John Ewert, the scientist who headed the Cascades Volcano Observatory, once told me that the educational campaign that Hill devoted himself to in Long Valley changed the way scientists are viewed. The agency’s added transparency included a regularly updated web page where anyone could check activity alert statuses.

In 2019, Ewert helped lead a course at Mammoth Lakes aimed at educating regional wildlife officials, first responders such as firefighters and police officers, and government and health officials, among others. The volcano crisis awareness meeting was held at the firehouse, a symbolic landmark that volcanologists could not have imagined two decades ago.

Mammoth Lakes/Long Valley volcano is still active but in “non-volcanic background condition”. The USGS says the current level of activity is “normal,” the lowest alert possible.

In 2009, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck central Italy, killing more than 300 people. Six scholars and a government official were charged with manslaughter; Prosecutors asserted that scientists failed to adequately warn the public in the wake of the small tremors that preceded the earthquake. They were convicted and sentenced to six years in prison, but the sentence was overturned on appeal.

Ewert and many other scientists who tried to predict the phenomena of natural disasters were frozen by evolution.

“How do you maintain credibility over time as a system evolves?” asked Eort, echoing the challenge facing scientists communicating with the threat posed by recent earthquakes, volcanoes, and epidemics. “this is difficult.”

Todd Balf is the author of several books, including the memoir “Complications”.

Sources

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2/ https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-05-28/mammoth-lakes-volcano-1982-warning

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