Earthquake expert says part of Istanbul lies at ‘the frontiers of hell’

Professor Nasi Gorur, a geophysicist, described an extension of Istanbul, Turkey’s most populous city, as being “within the boundaries of hell” and also warned of the possibility of an earthquake in the future.

The city, which was severely damaged by earthquakes in 1999, is on edge in light of repeated warnings by experts about the expected “big quake,” a quake of 7.0 or higher.

Gurur says the area stretching from the Golden Horn to the remote Silivri region on the European side of the city will suffer the most damage from tremors originating from the fault line about 9 kilometers (5.5 miles) off the coast of the Marmara Sea.

It points to possible repercussions along a line that runs 20 kilometers from south to north.

He made his remarks Friday at a symposium on earthquake preparedness held in Avcilar, a region on the European side where the 1999 earthquake caused heavy losses.

The epicenter of the 1999 earthquake was off the coast of Gölcük, a town east of Istanbul, and it originated about 80 kilometers from Avcilar. However, the old buildings in the neighborhood have been damaged. This was no coincidence, Gurur said, explaining that the geological structure of the region is prone to such disasters. Most of the European side is under threat. Avcilar and Kucukcekmece (nearby) areas are rich in streams and valleys and exacerbate the impact of the earthquake. Avcilar is located on clay and limestone land. In other words, the ground materials are not very durable,” he told the event.

Görür says there are no active fault lines on land, however, activity along marine fault lines can result in inactive lines on land as well. He warned that “a 7.2-magnitude earthquake, for example, could cause landslides in an area stretching from Kucukcekmece to Buyukcekmece.” The expert noted that a 7.0-magnitude earthquake would damage the equivalent of 1.8 million tons of explosives. Besides collapses, such an earthquake would paralyze infrastructure and cause fires. Therefore, it is not enough just to rebuild durable buildings as protection. The authorities should allocate a budget for (better infrastructure) as well.

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