Supply limitations of earthquakes in Japan in the analysis of inputs and outputs

Direct damage to disaster and indirect damage between sectors in the supply chain from five sectors (for example) Credit: John Wiley and Sons

Many people can remember the shocking news pictures of Japan damaged by the earthquake between 1996 and September of 2018, there were 155 earthquakes in Japan which resulted in human injuries. In 20 of these earthquakes, people were lost or killed. During the Hyogo Ken Nanbu earthquake in 1995, 6,434 people were killed and 3 missing. In 99 of the 155 earthquakes, damage was recorded to homes, school buildings, windows, water and sewage pipes, and landslides. A tsunami occurred as a result of an earthquake in 18 of the 155 earthquakes.

Natural disasters cause harm to human life and greatly disrupt economic activities. Activity chains are one of the economic activities affected by natural disasters. Increasingly complex supply chains have caused supply chain disruptions also very complex, intertwined and inaccessible. Previous disasters demonstrate the importance of predicting economic damage from supply chain disturbances more precisely to structure risk management plans and reduce losses.

A study led by Senior Assistant Professor Michiyuki Yagi from Shinshu University used input and output analysis (IOA) to determine the economic damage associated with natural disasters; In particular, earthquakes. IOA is effective in assessing economic impact at the regional / sectoral level. Researchers focused on external damage (flow) to focus on monthly or quarterly levels of production statistics. They chose the Leontief pricing model to get into the study, based on Ji Young Park (2007) which considered supply constraints in the Ghosh price model to provide price flexibility for demand. This study modified Park (2007) to use the Leontief price model instead of the Ghosh price model and to use a social surplus loss as a harm rather than a change in production.

The social surplus loss was used instead of the change in production because production or sales are less useful as an indicator of damages than profit (margin) because any amount can be without looking at the profit. Production (sales) also does not determine the amount of damage to each supplier (upstream) and buyer (upstream).

The researchers found that the estimates of previous studies to estimate indirect damage were similar to those of this study. Japan’s largest earthquakes tend to seek economic assistance ranging from 0.2 to 0.3 months for primary production right after the disaster in an affected prefecture and more than 0.5 months or 50% of primary production in total until the first time recovery, which is often the eighth month.

The earthquake, known as the Great East Japan Earthquake, required weak (rapid) economic assistance in the provinces of Fukushima, Iwate, Miyagi, Ibaraki, and Chiba. This was cumulative, producing 25 months of production up to chronological recovery in the thirty-seventh month (to the five governorates).

When natural disasters strike domestically, urban networks spread damage worldwide More information: Michiyuki Yagi et al, Japan’s earthquake supply in input and output analysis, risk analysis (2020). Doi: 10.1111 / risa.13525

Provided by Shinshu University

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