KyotoU PEGS flies away when catching earthquakes at the speed of light

Newswise – Kyoto, Japan – We all want to be warned of giant earthquakes as soon as possible.

Now, a team from Kyoto University and Gozore has developed a new approach, based on deep learning for artificial intelligence to detect rapid elastic gravitational signals, or PEGS. These are the gravitational changes caused by the movement of large mass in mega earthquakes and can be recorded by seismometers.

PEGS carries information about a continuous earthquake at the speed of light, arriving much faster than the fastest seismic waves.

“These real-time signals can be used to track earthquake growth immediately after the event reaches magnitudes greater than 8,” says author Bertrand Roet-Leduc.

To date, however, the precise capacity of the PEGS system has prevented its use in earthquake and tsunami warning systems.

Current early warning systems based on seismic waves rely on directly estimating the magnitude of the vibration. Although a magnitude 9 earthquake is thirty times more powerful than a magnitude 8 earthquake, early warning systems tend to get saturated and fail to estimate the magnitude beyond 8. Even GPS-based methods are limited by great uncertainty , latency, and reliance on previous assumptions.

“When our team developed an in-depth AI model taking advantage of the information carried by the PEGS system, we were pleasantly surprised by our success with the prototype, which classifies earthquakes according to their magnitude,” Rouet-Leduc explains.

The team was then able to demonstrate that their deep learning model could immediately track an earthquake in real time after it reached a certain magnitude. The event was obtained from actual Japanese seismic data after training the AI ​​to process simulated waveforms.

Although the algorithm still needs to be tested on live data, the scientists believe the results have the potential to improve earthquake and tsunami warning systems.

The author concludes, “Our new model can help alert communities more quickly of a seawall-penetrating tsunami following a massive earthquake.”

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The paper, “Instant Tracking of Seismic Growth with Elastic Gravitational Signals,” appeared May 11, 2022 in the journal Nature, with doi: 10.1038/s41586-022-04672-7

About Kyoto University

One of the leading research institutions in Japan and Asia, Kyoto University was founded in 1897 and is responsible for producing many Nobel Laureates and winners of other prestigious international prizes. A broad curriculum across arts and sciences at both the undergraduate and graduate levels is complemented by numerous research centers, as well as facilities and offices throughout Japan and the world. For more information please see: http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en

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