Why was the 5.9 magnitude earthquake in Afghanistan so devastating?

This week, eastern Afghanistan was hit by an earthquake in the middle of the night, the deadliest in the country in two decades. The epicenter of the earthquake was in Paktika province, about 30 miles from the city of Khost. Hundreds of homes and buildings collapsed. Entire villages were razed to the ground. At least 1,150 people were killed, and at least another was injured, according to official reports. A later fallout on Friday added to the death toll. But the initial earthquake had a relatively moderate earthquake intensity of 5.9, and such events are relatively common in geologically active places. So why was the devastation so severe in this case?

The earthquake was related to the continuous collision of the Indian tectonic plates with the Eurasian plate, an effect that also caused the Himalayas. As it moves north, the Indian plate drifts along part of the Eurasian plate to the east and the movement of these massive volumes of rock against each other sometimes ruptures one or more of the hundreds of cracks – known as faults – that gather near the edges of the plates. Sometimes the rock masses on either side of these faults vibrate against each other instead of sliding slowly, resulting in what is called a strike earthquake. These sudden movements radiate outward from the fault as seismic waves, causing the ground to shake. And the closer I got to the error, the more violently it shook. Globally, more than 100 earthquakes of magnitude 5.9 are expected to occur each year, and they are most likely to occur in seismically active regions such as Afghanistan.

To understand how a mild earthquake in Afghanistan — unusual for the region — has led to so much death and destruction and how these tragedies might be mitigated in the future, Scientific American spoke with seismologist Lucy Jones, a visiting research associate at the California Institute of Technology and founder of the Dr. Lucy Center Jones for Science and Society. The latter organization focuses on making societies more resilient through communication and the application of science.

[An edited transcript of the interview follows.]

How does this earthquake compare to those in other areas where there are a lot of earthquakes, such as the San Andreas Fault in California?

We had the equivalent of 5.9 earthquakes in Los Angeles in 1987, 14 kilometers away [about nine miles] The depth, called the Whittier Narrows earthquake. He was at a relatively small and deep mistake. We still have [eight] Deaths and damages totaling more than $350 million in 1987 dollars. You’re putting the earthquake right under people, and there’s a lot of damage. This earthquake in Afghanistan may be too shallow than the Whittier Narrows – we don’t really have enough data to be sure, but because it’s a slip fault [which is vertical and so comes closer to the surface]People were closer to him.

With Whittier Narrows, we might have had a density of 7 or 8 at a distance of 20 or 30 kilometers [about 12 or 19 miles]. Density brings 9 old California buildings. [Editor’s Note: Magnitude measures the overall size of an earthquake, whereas intensity measures shaking at a particular location.] those buildings [in Afghanistan] They are built from river rocks that have been pounded together – these rocks will fall with a density of 6. This is a strong enough vibration to demolish any traditional Afghani structure.

Homes tend to be higher up the hill due to flooding. If you have an unsupported stone construction going up, you will have less stability, and it will be easier for you to fall. So my guess is it’s not geology – it’s just the type of construction.

Is there anything in the area that has contributed to the scale of death and destruction caused by the earthquake, compared to areas where we have earthquake-resistant buildings?

There are no earthquake resistant buildings. It is an “engineered building”. In the western US, we have a building code, we have a hazard map. For each location on the map, you could say, “Here’s the sum of all the possible earthquakes that could affect the area.” For the type of earthquake that happens once every 2,500 years, buildings are supposed to be designed not to kill people. You are allowed to have a partial collapse, but you should not have a complete breakdown. So even when we engineer buildings, we accept a certain level of collapse.

Basically, what you see in Afghanistan, especially in really rural areas, is that there aren’t any engineering buildings. They are mostly river stones associated with some type of mortar – and mortars behave awfully in earthquakes. Take a brick building and shake it, the mortar melts. Then if bricks or stones clog the roof, the roof goes down. This kills a lot of people. Engineers call them URMs (Unreinforced Buildings). Some of us have been known to call FPRs for “future piles of rubble.”

URMs haven’t been allowed to be built in California since about 1935—but we haven’t made them disappear. Quite a few people died in URMs in 1971, and there was debate about their modification. The City of Los Angeles passed a law requiring all URMs to be modified or demolished within 10 years. So by the time the Northridge earthquake occurred in 1994, there were no unmodified URMs in the city. The retrofit worked well enough to prevent a lot of it from getting damaged, so we know the retrofit works.

Are there any measures other than strengthening structures that can be put in place to improve a community’s resilience to earthquakes?

When you have very bad buildings? Then it’s just a matter of luck: Will the earthquake be so close that they are all wiped out? Iran is another place that has historically experienced a lot of earthquakes like this with buildings like this. It shakes really hard, knocking down all the buildings. The only way to not get killed in this situation is to be able to do something about the buildings.

USAID has been working with the Afghan government, trying to build safer hospitals and things like that and schools. But if the earthquake happened in the middle of the night? In California, an earthquake in the middle of the night is a good thing because most of us live in wooden buildings. It is very flexible. They tend to do a better job. Whereas if it’s the middle of the day our commercial buildings have a lot of irresistible concrete – concrete buildings from the 50s and 60s – before we find out that this was a really bad way to build buildings. So we would expect an earthquake in the middle of the day to be a little more deadly than an earthquake at night. It’s the other way around in places like Afghanistan because it’s night when people are at home in these bad buildings. In a rural area, you spend a lot of the day outside, which is much safer.

How can countries with more earthquake infrastructure, such as the United States, help countries that may lack expertise and funding?

There is a group called GeoHazards International, which is a non-profit organization based in Northern California. It sends engineers to different countries to help teach people how to build better homes at low cost. This does not come and work in engineering buildings. This comes up and says, “If you add this framework to the way you’re already building, you’ll be better off.” The first place they really went to was in Nepal, maybe 20 years ago. When the 2015 Nepal earthquake happened, the time to go was, “Wow, I think my work saved a lot of lives.”

Their approach was started by a man named Brian Tucker – he was [acting state geologist] in California. He realized how imperfect we are [in California]We still kill people, but, you know, we’ve saved a lot of lives with our approach. It is not rocket science. It is just basic knowledge about earthquakes and buildings. He felt that we should share this information with other parts of the world for people to live. It does not build more expensive; It builds smarter. This is what happens when this is not achieved.

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