A welcome reality check on earthquake hazards

Ross Giblin/Staff

Notice on an earthquake-prone building in Wellington. (file image)

Peter Griffin is a freelance science and technology writer. He was the founding director of Science Media Center and the founding editor of Sciblogs.co.nz.

Opinion: A few weeks ago, I somewhat nervously decided to go on a business trip to New York.

Even though I was excited to the extreme, I realized that with the six flights required for the round trip, the many meetings I was going to take, the subway rides and socializing, I ended up getting Covid.

But I went anyway. I hid as much as I could, including during a concert that ran out completely

The Who at Madison Square Garden. I had a blast in the US and came home virus-free.

Read more: *No need to evacuate earthquake-prone buildings, says MBIE *New project manager, deadline extended for hazardous CBD buildings *Cost to hold on to historic buildings may not be feasible *Two earthquake-prone buildings in Nelson to close *Building owner Timaru urges others to take action Earthquake assessments quickly

We weigh these types of risks every day. Our choices are a trade-off between one possible outcome and another. It’s a very subjective process influenced by a host of factors, including the credibility of sources giving advice about risks.

So it was really refreshing last week to hear a bureaucrat from the Department of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) advise us to get perspective on the risks posed by the country’s 4,200 earthquake-prone buildings.

MBIE Building Performance Director Dave Glaes notes that the “annual death risk” for a building with a New Building Standard (NBS) of 34% or less is one in 40,000 – 100,000.

By comparison, Giggins pointed out, the risk of death while flying on a plane is one in 700 thousand, while the risk of driving a car carries a risk of death of one in 20 thousand people.

supplied

New Zealand researchers have found solutions to a structural defect that threatens hundreds of central buildings in Wellington. (First published May 30, 2022)

In the scheme of things, sitting behind a desk in an earthquake-prone building in central Wellington is much less likely to get you killed than your daily commute.

The MBIE has updated its seismic risk guidelines for earthquake-prone buildings, advising that they are not “imminently dangerous” and can be kept occupied while building owners work to remedy them.

This is a much-needed and long-awaited clarification point.

There has been much concern in Wellington among tenants, employees and owners about whether people should remain in buildings that require repair. It affected the psyche of the city.

I know people who wouldn’t live in an apartment in central Wellington, and some who had left town altogether due to fears of earthquake hazards.

Robert Kitchen / Stuff

Science columnist Peter Griffin says there has been a lot of concern about earthquake-prone buildings.

I live by myself in an apartment building on the 12th floor, I don’t have to worry about that. Cardio, kayaking, or a bus crash on Manners Street are more likely to hit me than an earthquake.

I’m not reckless about it.

The building has a very good NBS rating, is insured, and as a member of the board of directors, I share responsibility for its upkeep.

We know what to do in an emergency. Wellington residents should appreciate and enjoy buildings that need strengthening while upgrading.

Natural hazards are a constant threat for which we must prepare, and risk assessments change over time.

But if we consider the relative risks of our day-to-day business, we will probably make better decisions and worry less in the process.

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