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IMF staff conclude a remote visit to Albania staff

 



IMF staff conclude a remote visit to Albania staff

July 1, 2020

The press releases at the end of the mission include data from the IMF task forces, which convey preliminary results after visiting a country. The opinions expressed in this statement are those of the staff of the International Monetary Fund and do not necessarily represent the views of the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund. This task will not lead to a discussion of the Council.

Because of the aftermath of the earthquake and epidemic of COVID-19, Albania’s economy is expected to sharply contract in 2020 and rebound in 2021. But uncertainty is high. Temporary, targeted and transparent support for people and companies affected by shocks is warranted and needs to be included in a reliable medium-term financial framework. Once the effects of the shocks subside, it will be necessary to resume revenue-based fiscal consolidation and put public debt on a sustainable downward path to rebuild room for maneuver in fiscal policy.

WASHINGTON, DC – An IMF team, led by Ms. Yan Sun, conducted a remote staff visit to Albania from June 25 to July 1. At the end of this mission, Ms. Sun issued the following statement:

“The near-term outlook for the Albanian economy remains difficult, reflecting the important impacts of the November 2019 earthquake and the COVID-19 epidemic. As in other parts of the world, and reflecting Albania’s dependence on tourism and remittances, the economy is expected to contract sharply in 2020 and recover in 2021. Expectations are subject to unusually severe uncertainty, given the nature of the epidemic.

“Macroeconomic stability has been maintained in Albania thus far thanks to the management of skilled policies and the globally adapted financial conditions. A significant increase in the fiscal deficit in 2020 is necessary to deal with the aftermath of the epidemic and earthquake, by supporting the economy and providing health spending and reconstruction. Once the effects of the shocks subside, it will be necessary to resume revenue-based fiscal consolidation and put public debt on a sustainable downward path, in order to rebuild space for fiscal policy maneuver. In this regard, we strongly encourage the authorities to continue preparing the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS), in order to build a fairer, simpler, more efficient and transparent tax system that generates the resources needed to achieve Albania. SDGs and debt sustainability. Efforts should also be intensified to manage increased financial risks, including from public-private partnerships, and enhance the quality of public investment management.

“We note with concern a recent proposal to remove the profit tax until 2029 for all companies with an annual turnover of up to 14 million Albanian Lek (ALL) and value added tax for all companies with an annual turnover of up to $ 10 million. The support of people is justified Companies that have been affected by shocks, but must be temporary, targeted, transparent and built-in in a reliable and prudent medium-term financial framework. Business profit and VAT thresholds must be standardized at a carefully designed level, consistent with MTRS goals. Too long for too long would erode the tax base and undermine tax compliance.Moreover, we repeat our advice against potential tax amnesty, as it could undermine tax compliance. Effective systems must be established first to detect tax evasion and prevent opportunities for money laundering and corruption.

The accommodative monetary policy of the Bank of Albania is still appropriate. Constant exchange rate flexibility will help absorb shocks and restore external balance. The banking system has generally entered epidemiological fluids with good capital. However, its resilience will be tested and weaknesses pockets, including the potential rise in high stocks of bad loans, will have to be closely monitored, evaluated and managed. It is important to maintain the rules for classifying loans and provisions to assess the potential losses of banks as accurately as possible. We support the restructuring of prudent bank loans when necessary for sectors or companies severely affected by shocks.

“We would like to thank our counterparts for the open and fruitful discussions and we wish the government and people of Albania success in overcoming the shocks.”

Media relations of the International Monetary Fund’s Communications Department

Press official: Gediminas Felkas

Phone: +1 202 623-7100 E-mail: [email protected]

IMFSpokesperson

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