New research: A framework for modeling infrastructure resilience after an earthquake | News

Researchers at Oregon State University have developed a computational model to predict the resilience of local and regional infrastructure networks and the recovery time of affected communities following a massive earthquake and tsunami in the Cascadia subduction zone.

The researchers note that the work is important, because some studies predict a 7% to 11% probability of a major earthquake – a “full margin rupture” – occurring in the next 50 years along the offshore fault, which stretches from British Columbia to Northern California.

Earthquake safety signs are located in Newport, Lincoln City, and along the entire Oregon coast.

Courtesy of Oregon Sea Grant

The new research, led by College of Engineering doctoral student Dylan Sanderson, involved transmission networks but the model is designed as a framework for use in other types of networks as well, such as water and electric power networks. The study focused on 18 communities along the Oregon coast, from Astoria and Warrenton to Brookings.

said co-author Dan Cox, a professor of civil and construction engineering in Oregon. “We look at connectivity from two perspectives: a local index related to wandering within a community, and a regional index related to community migration to other locations. We show that without regional considerations, recovery time may be highly predicted.”

The results of the study, supported in part by the Oregon Sea Grant, were published in the Journal of Infrastructure Systems.

“Our work is still ongoing, so we haven’t taken our results to the communities yet, but we plan to interview them as the next step,” Cox said.

The Cascadia subduction zone was the site of a magnitude 9 earthquake in 1700 and increases pressure as the Juan de Fuca plate slides down the North American plate.

An earthquake’s magnitude is measured on a logarithmic scale from 1 to 10 – each whole number represents a 10-fold increase in measured amplitude and a 31-fold increase in energy released.

The largest earthquake recorded was the 1960 earthquake in Chile with a magnitude of 9.5. The readings for the 2011 earthquake that resulted in severe damage and radiation emissions at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in Japan were 9.0.

Sanderson, Cox and Andre Barbosa of the College of Engineering and John Bolt of the College of Agricultural Sciences individually and collectively analyzed the 18 Oregon communities as a regional network extending about 60 miles to the east, taking into account factors such as seismic ground shaking, tsunami depth inundation, proximity to airports and from road maintenance facilities. Fast and bridge.

“Once we established the regional and local connectivity indicators, we examined the state of the network at multiple levels,” Sanderson said. “In some cases, regional recovery occurs faster than local recovery, such as North Bend and Coos Bay, while in other communities, such as Toledo, local recovery is faster than regional recovery.”

He added that for some communities, such as Rockaway Beach and Lincoln City, regional and local recoveries are expected to occur at roughly the same pace.

“By comparing our results with other work that did not take into account the regional network, the recovery time for one community was shown to be four times longer than previously expected,” Sanderson said.

The researchers said that communities experiencing rapid regional recovery have access to roads that have been identified as a higher priority for restoration and also access to roads in areas with less risk-intensive action. Communities that recovered quickly locally did so because of their access to maintenance facilities.

“We showed that adding additional maintenance facilities helped some communities, but others saw little or no improvement in local recovery time,” Sanderson said. “Communities that are more rural saw an improvement in time to recovery when an additional maintenance facility was added in the area, but communities closer to urban areas saw only a slight improvement.”

The authors said the study highlights some of the disparities in the recovery rate of coastal communities following major disasters and shows that more work is needed to resolve these issues.

“In the short term, the framework can be used to support decision-making by various state or federal agencies, both at the local and regional levels, particularly when examining the impact of different policies to enhance community resilience,” Barbosa said.

This research was also supported by the US Department of Commerce, the Oregon State Legislature, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, and Colorado State University.

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