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Japan is set to be hit by a massive earthquake, as experts warn many people aren’t prepared – but an elite rescue squad is ready
On a hot, humid summer’s day, Tatsuya Tanaka and six of his classmates prepare to enter a house that has been swallowed up almost entirely by a landslide.
He must secure the structure with metal trusses and crawl inside a narrow space to rescue the injured victim.
And there is no time to waste.
This is a training exercise carried out by the elite earthquake rescue unit, fire rescue teams in Tokyo, as they prepare for the next huge earthquake in Japan.
The drills take place three or four times a month at a training facility on the outskirts of Tokyo, and serve as a constant reminder of the many dangers first responders can face when the next big blow strikes.
Tatsuya Tanaka has been a member of the Tokyo Rescue Task Force for eight years (ABC News: Yumi Asada)
“First, the ground will shake severely, and the buildings will collapse,” says Tatsuya.
“When buildings collapse, there is the potential for fire. Soil liquefaction, which causes buildings to sink, can also occur.
“We may need to go inside collapsed buildings, very small and dangerous spaces. This could create fear.”
It’s a scenario that has persisted over and over again throughout Japan’s history as one of the world’s most earthquake-prone countries, intertwined with four tectonic plates constantly pressing and pushing each other.
Tokyo itself is particularly vulnerable because it lies on the Kantō Plain, where two oceanic plates push against it.
Space to play or pause, M for mute, left and right arrows for searching, up and down arrows for volume. Watch Duration: 1 minute 1 second 1 pm 1 second This is what it’s like to be woken up in the middle of the night by the earthquake warning system in Japan (headphones recommended).
Most earthquakes are relatively mild, causing some mild tremors and only minor damage.
But this is not always the case.
Nearly two decades ago, the world watched in horror as a 6.8-magnitude earthquake struck the mountainous Niigata Prefecture on Japan’s west coast.
About 90,000 homes were destroyed, dozens killed, and panic and uncertainty spread as communications were cut, and power outages forced hospital workers to treat the wounded with torchlight.
Amid the devastation was a miracle: Firefighters managed to save a two-year-old who had been trapped in a car under a landslide for four days.
The boy’s mother and older sister died.
Workers rescued a two-year-old boy but could not save his sister and mother (Reuters: Kimimasa Mayama)
It was these photos that first inspired Tatsuya to become a firefighter.
“They were really my heroes and they sounded really cool to me,” he says.
Tatsuya followed his dream and eventually joined the elite unit, where he now served for eight years.
“When I do my training, I think of disasters in the past and I imagine this training as the site of an actual disaster,” he said.
Since the Niigata earthquake in 2004, there have been dozens more of varying intensity, most notably the earthquake in 2011 that caused a tsunami and collapsed a nuclear power plant, killing more than 18,000 people.
Experts warn that the next devastating earthquake is near.
An elite earthquake rescue unit trains four times a month for drills (ABC News: Yumi Asada) What will happen when the next massive earthquake hits Japan?
Earthquakes are a fact of life in Japan, at a rate of 1,500 each year.
Earlier this year, the Tokyo metropolitan government commissioned a study to remind its residents of the many dangers that accompany these major earthquakes.
It found that there is a 70 percent chance that a 7.3-magnitude earthquake will hit metropolitan Tokyo before 2050.
The report predicted that if the city felt the brunt, 6,148 people would die, mostly from collapsed buildings and fires.
About 81,000 buildings will be destroyed, and 4.53 million people will remain stranded, unable to return home.
The evacuation centers will be overcrowded.
The Tokyo Rescue Task Force is preparing for a scenario just like this. (ABC News: Yomi Asada)
Naoshi Hirata, professor emeritus of seismology at the University of Tokyo, helped write the report with the Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s Expert Committee on Disaster Prevention.
He says that Tokyo residents are familiar with earthquakes, but many don’t really understand what a big earthquake would be like.
In such a situation, public transportation will stop working, electricity and water will likely be out for about a week, and people in high-rise apartments will not be able to use elevators for long periods.
“Not all people, all populations, think seriously about this,” says Professor Hirata.
University of Tokyo professor emeritus Naoshi Hirata wrote a recent report warning that the next massive earthquake in Japan may be imminent (ABC News: Yumi Asada)
The latest report indicated that the number of families living in high-rise apartments has boomed by 33 percent since the last report, released 10 years ago.
However, these buildings were specifically designed to withstand major earthquakes and prevent the spread of fires, resulting in a drastic reduction in the death toll and property damage by 30 to 40 percent.
The main concern is the many old buildings that were built before strict seismic regulations came into force in 1981.
Narrow lanes and cramped, collapsed and fire-prone wooden structures swarm around Tokyo.
“These houses are weak. So this is a very serious problem,” says Professor Hirata.
Narrow lanes spread around Tokyo (ABC News: Yumi Asada)
Professor Hirata says the probability of a 7.3-magnitude earthquake hitting Tokyo before 2050 is 70 percent dependent on the frequency of the previous earthquake.
These types of earthquakes strike the greater Tokyo area, on average, every 27 years.
“We have made several assumptions to estimate this number,” he said.
“The first is that past activity is very similar to future seismic activity. We don’t know if this is true or not. But we simply assume.”
While predicting the exact date of an earthquake is impossible, what is certain that a major earthquake will occur is a matter of time, not if. It could be tomorrow.
Meanwhile, fire rescue teams are preparing for the 10th day.
Team leader Kenji Isokawa says disaster tools and techniques have improved dramatically in recent years. (ABC News: Yomi Asada)
Team leader Kenji Isokawa has been warning about massive earthquakes since he was a child.
Over the years, he says, training in the fire brigade has been consistent, but what has improved are the tools and technology that can be used after a disaster.
“We are 100 percent confident in our ability to respond,” he says.
“But, in many cases, nature is beyond our imaginations and capabilities.”
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