USGS issues rare South Carolina earthquake warning

An ongoing swarm of earthquakes in South Carolina has led the US Geological Survey to issue an advisory about the chance of larger earthquakes in the future.

The USGS defines an earthquake swarm as “a long sequence of earthquakes that lacks any obvious initial event or main shock, in contrast to an aftershock sequence where the main tremor is followed by a decaying series of (mostly) smaller earthquakes”.

The USGS goes on to say, “During an earthquake swarm, the rate of seismicity increases, and the potential for larger earthquakes rises accordingly. This swarm has produced fairly steady earthquakes since December 2021.”

A 3.6-magnitude earthquake struck northeastern Colombia on Wednesday, June 29, 2022 at 7:03 p.m. The epicenter was near Elgin, South Carolina, about 19 miles northeast of Columbia, South Carolina.

Swarms can keep the earthquake rate high for a few days to several months and it is impossible to predict how long a swarm will last. It is also not possible to predict the magnitude of the largest earthquake in the swarm.

While the USGS says the most likely scenario going forward is continued small earthquakes, there is a chance of a much larger one.

Map of the South Carolina earthquake on June 29, 2022

Here are the three scenarios that the USGS says are possible:

Scenario 1 (most likely, 95% chance): Earthquakes continue but not greater than 4 on the Richter scale over the next month. The most likely scenario is that the swarm continues as it has over the past months, confined to the area already affected by the swarm. The swarm’s seismic rate is likely to remain the same, if not decrease slightly, for the next 30 days. People near earthquake epicenters are likely to feel smaller earthquakes. The swarm can stop completely during this time. Scenario 2 (lower probability, ~5% probability): a larger earthquake (magnitude 4-5) The least likely scenario is a somewhat larger earthquake in the 4 magnitude range. Such an earthquake can be felt over a larger area but will not cause significant damage. An earthquake of this size will have aftershocks that will temporarily increase the number of smaller earthquakes per day.

3. Third scenario (lowest probability, less than 1% chance): Much larger earthquake (magnitude 5 or higher)

The least likely scenario, compared to the previous two scenarios, is that a persistent swarm could cause an earthquake much larger than the M3.6 that occurred on June 29. While this is a very small possibility, such an earthquake can have significant effects on neighboring communities and will be followed by aftershocks that will increase the number of small earthquakes per day.

The June earthquake is the largest in the Carolinas since it struck Sparta, North Carolina, with a magnitude of 5.1 in August of 2020. The last time South Carolina had a quake of this magnitude, with a magnitude of 4.1, was near Parkersville in February 2014.

South Carolina is no stranger to seismic activity as there are many fault lines throughout the state.

The largest earthquake ever recorded on the East Coast was a 7.0 magnitude earthquake near Charleston in 1886.

No one can predict the exact time or location of any earthquake, including aftershocks or events in swarms. These earthquake forecasts help us understand the chances of more earthquakes during a certain period of time in the affected area and are based on statistics from previous earthquakes.

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