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Subtle micro-quakes illuminate major earthquake-hosting errors in Oklahoma and Kansas – SCIENCE
Using machine learning to examine seismic data over a decade, researchers have identified hundreds of thousands of micro-quakes along some previously unknown fault structures in Oklahoma and Kansas.
The newly identified micro-quakes have allowed seismologists to map and measure earthquake clusters in the region, which has experienced extraordinary levels of seismicity due to unconventional oil and gas production.
As they report in the seismic record, the researchers found that 80% of earthquakes of magnitude 4 and larger that occurred in the past decade could have been predicted based on the spatial extent of earthquake clusters that included the major earthquake before it occurred.
They also found that once the mass reached a length scale large enough to host an earthquake of magnitude 4 or greater, there was a roughly 5% chance that it would do so within a year of achieving that longitude, according to Yongsoo Park, PhD. .Dr. Student at Stanford University and colleagues.
Park and colleagues suggest that cluster information can be used by companies and regulators to monitor future oil and gas operations.
With few natural earthquakes and incomplete fault mapping in Oklahoma and Kansas prior to the development of unconventional hydrocarbons, researchers have been searching for new ways to understand seismic hazard in the region.
Park and colleagues used machine learning technology to find nearly 90,000 unidentified earthquakes in Arkansas in a previous study. “We were impressed with the result, especially since the catalog revealed previously unknown groups,” Park said. “We knew that most earthquakes in the Oklahoma-Kansas area were caused by hidden faults in the basement, so we wanted to implement a workflow to detect these faults.”
The researchers reanalyzed seismic data collected from 17 publicly available seismic networks in Oklahoma and Kansas from 2010 to 2019. Using a neural network to detect earthquakes and the arrival times of P and S waves, they found more than 300,000 earthquakes in the data.
When mapped, additional micro-seismics “connected the dots” between scattered earthquakes and small clusters formed by earthquakes of magnitude 60 or greater included in the study. The newly discovered micro-quakes have shed light on the sudden presence of many previously unknown faults, Park said.
“However, the most surprising part was that many clusters that were thought to be separate in previous studies were actually associated with micro-earthquakes. In other words, finding small earthquakes may no longer be an option, but a requirement when we are trying to do a meta-analysis. earthquake data.
Park said regulators could adapt the usual “traffic light” protocol – which oil and gas operators use to monitor, stop or slow down their activities to mitigate seismic hazards – to integrate the longitudinal scale of an earthquake cluster.
The original traffic light protocol was guided by the observed earthquake sizes and controlled by the largest-magnitude event. The researchers note that estimating the magnitude of earthquakes from the longitudinal scale can make this process proactive, controlled by large and small earthquakes.
“But because the amounts are estimates only, it is likely that the required actions to be taken will be different,” Park explained. If the block length scale raises concern, for example, “regulators can ask operators to deploy more seismographs around the block in question to better map the hidden fault.”
Sources 2/ https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/08/220826131215.htm The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article |
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