Earthquake gas drilling is testing the limits of European support for Ukraine

September 1, 2022 at 5:00 AM EST

More than 26,000 homes in the northern Dutch province of Groningen have been badly damaged by earthquakes caused by natural gas exploration. (The San Dirks for The Washington Post) commented on this story

Suspension

Groningen, The Netherlands – Earthquakes in this velvety green patch of the Dutch countryside have cracked homes, made businesses uninhabitable and even broke up marriages. After billions of euros in damages, and protests that included local farmers who entered The Hague on tractors, the Dutch government finally agreed to phase out drilling for natural gas that has caused more than 1,000 earthquakes since the 1980s.

But now, with Russia cutting gas flows and energy prices soaring, Europe is placing a sobering eye on this corner of the Netherlands – where 12th-century churches, country farmhouses, and comic villages sit above the continent’s home region, a gas field harboring the equivalent. Three years of Russian imports.

The United States and Germany in particular have raised a perilous question: Can the Dutch continue drilling in Groningen for the greater good of Europe?

“This question should not be asked of us,” said Jan Wigboldus, head of the local activist group Groninger Gasprad. “But they do.”

And so this enclave of nearly half a million people, with 26,000 homes badly damaged, appears as a stark test of how far governments are willing to go, and how much people are willing to put up with, in order to prop up Ukraine and isolate Russia.

European leaders accuse the Kremlin of arming energy exports in retaliation for money and arms provided by the European Union to Ukraine and sanctions it imposed on Russia. Russia’s threats to shut down gas to Europe entirely this winter, and the European Union’s desire to limit the Kremlin’s influence, have prompted European governments to scramble – and rethink the previously unimaginable.

Coal, a fossil fuel that has been underestimated in green Europe due to its high carbon emissions, is increasingly being used. Talk of hydraulic fracturing is emerging in countries including Germany and Britain, which have banned the extraction of shale gas by hitting and polluting the earth. Germany – the continent’s largest economy by far – is also considering a controversial life extension for nuclear power plants.

Germany is launching old coal plants, raising fears that climate targets will fade

“Everything is on the table now,” said Olga Khakova, a European energy expert at the Atlantic Council. “Ideas that seemed extreme or crazy in the past are now being considered.”

Nowhere in Europe would the sacrifice be greater than the sacrifice here in Groningen, a province on the North Sea.

One recent afternoon in the earthquake-stricken village of Waltersom, Lorenz Mengerinck, a 64-year-old electrical engineer, removed a red brick from an exterior wall of his seriously disfigured home.

“We see?” He said with a grin. “It disintegrates.”

Other tremors could seriously weaken his home – and destroy his neighbor’s newly completed renovations. However, Mingerink is among those who support renewable drilling.

“I think we need to reopen the gas tap,” he said.

“We need gas because of the war in Ukraine, and because of Russia,” he said. “We need our own solutions, our own energy, not theirs.”

Other residents are vehemently opposed – some openly question European sanctions against Russia.

“Restarting the gas is going to kill us,” said Ati Kuipers, a dairy farmer whose business suffered nearly $800,000 in earthquake damage. Asked if the gas shortage was worth it to punish Russian aggression, Kuipers paused, then said, “I don’t think so. It’s unrealistic. We need gas from Russia. We need oil from Russia. We can’t handle everything here using only renewables.” . … And the [Europe] You can’t have Groningen. “

Dutch officials have sought a compromise, rolling back plans to close wells this year, while maintaining that drilling would only ramp up in the worst-case scenario, darkening hospitals, schools and homes.

Extraction began from the sprawling field that held more than 2,700 billion cubic meters of gas in the 1960s. Since the late 1980s, residents have complained of rumbling in the ground that has frightened livestock, startled pets, and often caused hairline cracks on the walls. They say the Dutch government and the commercial partnership of the companies that extract the gas have told them there is nothing to fear from exploration.

At least since the 1990s, official reports have documented the relationship between tremors and extraction from Groningen’s soft, groovy ground – which is penetrated by faults that tremble when drawn gas causes the ground to shrink like a compressed sponge.

“But the prevailing view at the time was that the impact and maximum magnitudes were relatively low,” said Tom van der Lee, chair of a parliamentary committee now investigating the official response to decades of earthquakes. “It was not taken seriously.”

That changed 10 years ago, after a 3.6-magnitude earthquake felt stronger due to the shallowness of the soft Earth. Another relatively strong earthquake hit the province in 2018 – the year Groningen farmers, stables and homes entered The Hague on tractors in protest. That same year, the national government agreed to a phased shutdown.

The main street of Lubersum – a village of 2,500 inhabitants – is now a grim palette of earthquake years, including small tremors that persist today despite their reduced extraction. The Lopster Kroon Café, where locals once grazed their Dutch beer mugs, has been forced to close, and its brick building is marred by cracks that make it unsafe. The bike shop and butcher have also closed, along with a host of other businesses, some temporarily, others permanently. The Peter and Paul Church – built in 1217 – is covered with huge scaffolding. Some residents were moved to groups of temporary housing.

Many locals are still waiting for the Dutch government – which is responsible for who gets the damages and booster aid, and for how much – to finally agree to the claims, a process that has gone on for most residents for years.

The struggle resulted in heavy losses. Studies by the University of Groningen found that at least 10,000 adults in the area had stress-related health problems due to earthquake damage.

Geir Warenke, a 60-year-old guitar shop owner on Main Street in Lübersum, said he experienced an arrhythmia last year while dealing with an official about plans to restore his damaged showroom and home. He was temporarily forced to move his merchandise and living quarters to a more stable structure across the street.

He said he did not want more gas extraction, but believed a restart was inevitable given Europe’s energy crisis. He said that part of him would understand.

“Who am I to say that it is not acceptable to extract gas because people are dying in Ukraine and the price of gas is exploding,” he said. “It’s awful. It’s really awful.”

There are calls for the Dutch to escalate.

“Groningen … has the potential to weaken Russia’s energy grip on Europe,” Alice Stollmayer, executive director of the Hague-based Center for Research in Defense of Democracy, and Lukas Trakemavicius, an expert at NATO’s Center of Excellence for Energy Security, wrote in an editorial last month. .

“The Dutch can come to the rescue,” they wrote.

Another question is to what extent Groningen can alleviate Europe’s energy crisis. At the height of extraction, Groningen supplied Europe with about 10 percent of its gas. Roughly 450 billion cubic meters remain underground, enough to supply the European Union with energy for a full year, according to Gil van den Bokel, energy analyst at The Hague Center for Strategic Studies, a Dutch think-tank.

He estimates that the maximum technically possible increase in Groningen is 40 billion cubic meters per year – or about a quarter of the gas the EU bought from Russia last year. But Dutch officials describe these levels as seismic hazards. Bückel said a rise of 10 or 20 billion cubic meters was “more realistic” politically, and predicted that such a move could lower the record price in Europe by 10 to 20 percent.

“You could say that Groningen has reduced production in recent years [for its phase-down]He said Europe’s dependence on Russian gas has grown, as has Putin’s influence and ability to use gas as a weapon. “I have a feeling that the Dutch government is reluctant to increase Groningen production, because they see this as a political nightmare. But as a citizen, I say, they should do it.”

In January, as fears of a Russian invasion mounted, German suppliers infuriated Dutch officials by seeking to buy more Groningen gas. That same month, US officials sought to discuss energy options with Dutch officials, including the role Groningen could play in easing the region’s gas crisis.

In response to the Washington Post, US and German officials denied any “pressure” on the Netherlands to restart production, describing the talks as exploratory.

The German government has asked the Netherlands in recent months to explore further gas extraction in Groningen, Hans Villbreev, Dutch Minister of State for Extractive Industries, said.

“They already mentioned Groningen,” he said. But basically, we explained to them what I’m saying now. Yes, you can request solidarity. But it is dangerous “to extract gas there.

There are technical limits on the amount of gas that can be sent to Germany, Felpreeve said, but standing agreements could force an increase in production in the event of an “emergency”: “If people in Germany are freezing to death due to a shortage of gas, and the Germans take all other measures such as shutting down industry, and we can solve that by transporting gas from Groningen.” But he described such an event as “unlikely”. He said that if intensification does occur in Groningen, it will be limited and temporary – with the goal of continued well closures by 2024.

If emergency drilling resumes, supportive residents say it should be done with new technologies that can stabilize the ground and reduce the potential scope of future earthquakes – and with revenue diverted to help the affected community.

But more extraction isn’t the start for residents like Annette Sins, a 65-year-old nurse whose Loppersum home has been shattered by earthquakes. She is deeply sympathetic to Ukraine’s plight – and has joined weekly community meetings to raise funds and aid. But she is also sure that more gas extraction here will not help Ukraine or European consumers. She said the Dutch government – which gets the lion’s share of the gas profits – as well as the partnership between Shell and ExxonMobil that does the drilling work, would certainly reap any gains.

“We still have earthquakes, and they can’t predict what would happen if they could wipe out more,” she said. They say “Oh, that could mean a little bit of damage.” But there is still a chance of a major earthquake, and then our homes will collapse.”

Michael Birnbaum in Washington contributed to this report.

The war in Ukraine: what you need to know

The latest: Grain shipments from Ukraine accelerated under the agreement signed by Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the United Nations in July. The Russian blockade of Ukraine’s ports on the Black Sea has sent food prices soaring and raised fears of more hunger in the Middle East and Africa. At least 18 ships have left, including loads of wheat, corn and sunflower oil.

Fighting: The conflict continues on the ground as Russia uses its advantage in heavy artillery to strike the Ukrainian forces, who at times manage to put up fierce resistance. In the south lie Ukrainian hopes for the liberation of the Russian-occupied Kherson region, and eventually Crimea, which was captured by Russia in 2014. Fears of a catastrophe remain at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant as both sides accuse each other of bombing it.

Weapons: Western supplies of weapons help Ukraine slow the Russian advance. US-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) allow Ukrainian forces to strike farther behind Russian lines against Russian artillery. Russia has used a range of weapons against Ukraine, some of which have drawn the attention and concern of analysts.

PHOTOS: The Washington Post photographers have been on the ground since the start of the war—and here are some of their most powerful work.

How you can help: Here are the ways in which those in the United States can help support the Ukrainian people as well as what people around the world donate.

Read our full coverage of the Russia and Ukraine crisis. Are you on Telegram? Subscribe to our channel for updates and exclusive video.

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