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Can some animals feel the coming earthquakes? The answer seems to be yes
Professor Martin Wickelski hangs accelerometers on farm animal collars. Photo: Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior
Could animals in our lives provide early warning of earthquakes?
For years, there were reports of unusual behaviors in animals such as horses, dogs, cats, cows, and sheep, before major earthquakes.
Although scientists cannot reliably predict the date and place of the earthquake, the question of whether animals can provide a suitable early warning system has been discussed in few details.
To find out more, researchers from the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior and the University of Konstanz, both in Germany, joined forces to investigate whether cows, sheep and dogs could detect early signs of earthquakes.
They attached animal sensors in an earthquake-prone region in northern Italy and recorded their movements over several months.
The information they collected showed that the animals were unusually disturbed in the hours before the earthquakes.
As animals approached the epicenter of the impending earthquake, they began to act unusually.
The researchers said that the movement features of different animal species in different regions could provide clues about the location and time of the impending earthquake.
Experts disagree on whether earthquakes can be predicted exactly. However, animals seem to sense imminent danger hours in advance.
For example, there are reports that wild animals leave their sleeping and nesting places right before strong earthquakes and that pets become restless.
However, these anecdotal accounts often do not stand up to scientific scrutiny because the definition of unusual behavior is often very unclear and the observation period is very short. Other factors can explain their behavior.
In order to be able to use animal activity patterns as a type of earthquake early warning system, animals will have to exhibit measurable behavioral changes. And if they do react to weak physical changes just before the earthquake, they must react more forcefully as you get closer to the epicenter.
The animals used to study were on a farm. The researchers, whose results have been reported in the journal Ethology, have suspended accelerometers on the hoops of six cows, five sheep and two dogs that have already exhibited unusual behavior before earthquakes.
Then the researchers recorded their movements continuously over several months. During this period, official authorities reported about 18,000 earthquakes in the area.
In addition to the many small, unnoticeable earthquakes, there were also 12 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or higher on the Richter scale.
Then the researchers chose the earthquakes that caused statistically relevant ground movements on the farm. These included strong earthquakes of up to 28 km, as well as weaker earthquakes, whose centers were very close to the farm.
However, instead of explicitly searching for abnormal behaviors in the run-up to these events, researchers chose a more cautious approach. They first distinguished all behavioral changes for animals that were unusual according to objective statistical criteria.
Professor Martin Wickelski, director of the Max Planck Institute for Animal Behavior and lead investigator in “This way, we ensure that we not only create correlations retroactively, but also that we already have a model that can be used for prediction.” Center for Advanced Study of Group Behavior.
Data – measured as the acceleration of the body of each farm animal (indicating the level of activity) – was measured using statistical models derived from financial econometrics.
“Because each animal interacts differently in size, speed and according to species, animal data is similar to data for heterogeneous financial investors,” explains co-author Winfred Buhlmeyer, professor of econometrics at Konstanz University and lead investigator at the Center for Applicants studying group behavior.
Scientists also studied other disturbances such as natural changes in animal activity patterns throughout the day.
In this way, the researchers discovered unusual behavior patterns up to 20 hours before the earthquake.
“The closer the animals are to the center of the impending shock, the sooner they will change their behavior. This is exactly what you expect when material changes occur frequently in the center of the impending earthquake and become weaker with increasing distance.”
However, this effect was only evident when researchers looked at all the animals together.
“Collectively, animals seem to exhibit unrecognizable capabilities on an individual level,” says Wickelski.
It is still unclear how animals can feel the impending earthquakes. Animals may feel the ionization of air due to large rock pressures in earthquake regions with their hair. Animals can also smell gases from quartz crystals before an earthquake.
Earthquake early warning system
The real-time data that researchers measured and recorded since December 2019 shows what an animal earthquake early warning system might look like: a chip on the collar sends motion data to a central computer every three minutes. This results in a warning signal if you record significantly increased animal activity for at least 45 minutes.
Researchers received one of these warnings. “After three hours, a small earthquake rocked the area,” says Wickelski. “The epicenter was just below the animal stables.”
However, before animal behavior can be used to predict earthquakes, researchers need to monitor more animals over longer periods of time in different earthquake regions around the world.
For this, they want to use the ICARUS global animal monitoring system on the International Space Station, which will begin its scientific operation in a few weeks.
ICARUS, a science project managed by Martin Wikelski, is a joint project funded and implemented by the German Space Center and the Russian Space Agency Roskosmos. It is supported by the European Space Agency.
Martin Wikelski, Uschi Mueller, Paola Scocco, Andrea Catorci, Lev Desinov, Mikhail Belyaev, Daniel Keim, Winfried Pohlmeier and Gerhard Fechteler, P. Doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13078
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