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Huge Mexican earthquakes warn Southern California residents
A pair of massive earthquakes in Mexico – 7.6 on September 19 and 6.8 on September 22 – hit some in Southern California, and one wonders if the Golden State is next. Here, UC Riverside seismologist Abhijit Ghosh reflects on the potential for more shakers, and how to prepare for them. Ghosh is an associate professor of geophysics in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences. His work focuses extensively on understanding the physics of earthquakes, the processes that control them, and the risks associated with them.
Q: Does the two giant earthquakes that hit Mexico last week mean that California is now likely to experience an earthquake of similar size? Abhijit Ghosh doing fieldwork in the Mojave Desert with a seismic station. (Baoning Wu/UCR)
Ghosh: Since the earthquake in Mexico was about 1,300 miles from southern California, there is no direct impact on local faults. However, the seismic waves from the large earthquake spread through our region and shook the Earth, and this could lead to smaller earthquakes. In rare cases, such waves of distant earthquakes may trigger more destructive events, but again, they are not very common.
There are two ways in which one major seismic event can lead to another. One is the stationary trigger, when moving rocks create a fault only one or two hundred kilometers from the original fault. It won’t happen in this case. The other way, dynamic operation, can work remotely.
Using dynamic stimuli, seismic waves from a single earthquake propagate from a distance across the entire Earth. As they do, they can cause earthquakes anywhere. These earthquakes are usually smaller, but not always. The recent earthquakes in Mexico may not have changed the pressure on our mistakes, but they are a good reminder of what can happen here. It is only a matter of time before we experience the same kind of vibration and damage.
Q: What is the probability of an earthquake in this area even without the recent Mexican events?
Ghosh: Southern California hosts a major blunder, the San Andreas blunder, as well as another one, like the San Jacinto blunder. These could and will produce devastating earthquakes in the future. When San Andreas goes, it will definitely produce an event of similar size, like the Mexican event. Therefore, it is always good to be prepared for this. Drop it, cover it, and hold it when you feel the vibration. Have your earthquake kit ready and accessible at all times, in your car, home and workplace.
Q: Have the Mexican earthquakes reduced the likelihood of another major earthquake any time soon?
Ghosh: Mexico lies on what we call a subduction zone, and is prone to large earthquakes. What happened last week changed the pressure in the surrounding areas near Mexico which directly affected the faults. The aftershocks will last there for years, and some of them can be devastating. The aftershocks are usually smaller than the main initial shock which was 7.6 in this case. But even a magnitude 7 earthquake would be smaller, and obviously cause damage to buildings that have already been damaged and become vulnerable.
(Cover Image: SteveCollender/iStock/Getty)
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