UW, Other Partners Yellowstone Volcano Update, Seismic Plan

Laramie – The Yellowstone Volcano Observatory (YVO), a consortium of nine regional scientific agencies, has released a new 10-year plan to improve monitoring and risk assessment of volcanic, hydrothermal and seismic activity in the Yellowstone Plateau region.

The University of Wyoming, led by Department of Geology and Geophysics Professor Ken Sims, is a partner of YVO along with the USGS. Wyoming Geological Survey; Yellowstone National Park; University of Utah; the Montana Office of Mines and Geology; Idaho Geological Survey. Montana State University; and the scientific organization UNAVCO.

The Yellowstone volcanic system, formed over the past 2.1 million years by three massive caldera-forming eruptions and numerous small eruptions, is one of the world’s most dynamic parts of volcanic, hydrothermal and seismic activity. Although highly unlikely, the threat of another caldera-forming eruption — a volcanic eruption with a volume of more than 1,000 cubic kilometers, or 240 cubic miles — has serious implications for Earth’s habitability, as it will dump large amounts of ash over large areas from the United States and has a long-term negative impact on the global climate due to ash and gas being pumped into the stratosphere. The possibility of another Yellowstone super eruption has attracted massive media attention and even fearsome hype in recent years.

Announcement – The story continues below…

Fortunately, there is no indication that any such activity is imminent, and the molten system below Yellowstone is mostly solid. But there are still many geological hazards in the area that pose a threat to people and must be monitored.

In assessing the threat posed by potential active volcanoes in the United States, the Yellowstone Caldera was ranked 21st out of 161 volcanoes considered, based on an assessment of volcanic history and potential risks and impacts on surrounding communities and air traffic. Earthquakes are another hot topic, as the Yellowstone region is one of the most seismically active regions in the United States, with an average of 1,500-2,500 earthquakes each year. Hydrothermal eruptions are also a concern, as they have created large craters within the park, most recently just 3,000 years ago.

The gravimetric station operates in Hayden Valley, Yellowstone National Park. (Photo by Mike Poland/USGS/YELL-2017-SCI-7074 research permit)

Smaller hydrothermal eruptions – similar to unexpected or uncharacteristically large geyser events – occur almost annually and could pose a hazard to anyone nearby if the event occurs in any of the thermal areas frequented by visitors.

“All of these geological events have the potential to repeat in the Yellowstone region, and some, especially small hydrothermal eruptions and strong earthquakes, are likely to occur within the coming decades,” the new monitoring plan says.

Sims, a National Geographic explorer who searches for volcanoes around the world and has represented UW on YVO since 2013, says soon after moving to UW from a tenure research position at Woods Hole Institution of Oceanography. “As such, this new monitoring plan will greatly enhance YVO’s hazard forecasting capabilities, and will also greatly facilitate scientific advances that will help geologists better understand how the Yellowstone System operates.”

The Yellowstone Monitoring Plan 2022-2032, available here, includes detailed descriptions of current and planned monitoring systems in the Yellowstone area. In detail, the new monitoring plan identified two different categories of monitoring objectives: backbone monitoring and hydrothermal monitoring.

Backbone monitoring refers to the already existing and extended regional monitoring network. While the current backbone monitoring network is very robust, over the next decade, YVO will update and augment both its continuous GPS network, earthquake monitoring and hydrological monitoring program, which tracks the chemistry, flow patterns, and physical properties of groundwater, rivers, and lakes.

Hydrothermal Monitoring, a new part in the monitoring plan, refers to tracking hydrothermal activity associated with Yellowstone thermal basins and geysers. Until now, continuous monitoring has largely avoided geysers because they are “noisy” and can obscure the ability to detect changes on a regional scale, such as earthquakes and land deformation. However, the potential for hydrothermal eruptions is another serious risk in Yellowstone. Even small, steam-driven eruptions, such as the 1989 blast at the Porkchop Geyser, can have dangerous effects on anyone nearby. Volcanologists still lack a good understanding of whether hydrothermal eruptions have measurable forerunners; Therefore, additional monitoring is necessary to address this question and help mitigate the impact of such events.

In general, the details of the new plan require the following:

– Addition of digital seismic sensors as there are now only analog systems.

– Addition of permanently logged GPS stations in the Norris Geyser Basin and other areas of under-monitored activity.

– Expansion of continuous gas monitoring.

Deployment of additional hydrological, environmental and lake monitoring stations.

Improved monitoring of Yellowstone’s hydrothermal systems to help scientists better understand geothermal dynamics and associated risks.

For more information about YVO, go to www.usgs.gov/observatories/yvo.

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