Experts warn that a magnitude 9 earthquake could wreak havoc along New Zealand’s east coast

Dr Kate Clark of GNS Science said advances in science have allowed major subduction zone earthquakes to be predicted – which can experience earthquakes of magnitude 8 and 9.

We did a study at Grasmere Lake in Marlborough and found evidence of two really big tsunamis at that location. One of them was about 1,500 years old and the other was about 2,000 years old.”

“This is the first time we have been able to calculate the frequency of large earthquakes in the subduction zone.”

Dr Clark said there is a high potential for a major earthquake to occur in the southern part of the plate boundary.

“One of the big advances we’ve made in five years is getting better predictions of the likely time of the next big subduction earthquake. So for most of us — and certainly for our kids, there’s a one in four chance of this happening in their lifetime.”

The Hikurangi Subduction Zone (HSZ) extends from the northeast of the North Island, past Hawke’s Bay, and spreads below the Australian Plate.

Ben Green, director of civil defense and emergencies at Gisborne, warned that residents in the Terrauhiti region need to prepare for such a disaster.

“As a region, we are isolated. The kind of event that Hikuranji will present – ​​it will be multi-region. So the support in this core is not going to be a helicopter showing up in 12 hours. We need to be flexible for a while.”

Dr Laura Wallace, a geophysicist at the University of Texas, said marine earthquakes pose the biggest threat to New Zealand residents.

Insufficient movement on the sea floor can lead to large tsunamis, she said, “which is really the biggest concern for possible loss of life.”

“The area along the Hikurangi subduction line is one of the biggest sources of earthquakes and tsunamis in New Zealand. Thanks to GeoNet, we can monitor what is happening in the subduction zone – the part under our feet, but we are really blind to what is happening outside – and that is the most dangerous.”

Dr. Wallace is part of an international team studying slow-slide events, which are slow-moving earthquakes that can take days, months, and even years.

In a groundbreaking study involving a multinational team of geophysicists and oceanographers, scientists deploy a large number of sensors to the sea floor along the HSZ. It aims to better understand the vertical motion of the ocean floor during slow-slide events in more detail.

Researchers from Columbia University, University of Rhode Island, USA, University of Tokyo, Kyoto University and Tohoku University in Japan came to join GNS Science researchers aboard the NIWA Tangaroa research vessel.

Public interest journalism funded by NZ On Air

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