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Slight shifts in the magnetic field preceded the California earthquakes
Magnetometers have detected faint signals that may improve our understanding of what happens before earthquakes and offer promise for early detection.
Scientists studying moderate to large earthquakes in California have detected detectable changes in the local magnetic field that occur 2-3 days before the earthquake. A recent study found the magnetic field change signal to be faint but statistically significant, and seismologists hope their technology can be improved to eventually help predict earthquakes. The research was recently published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.
“It’s a modest indication,” said Dan Schneider, one of the study’s authors. He is the director of QuakeFinder, the earthquake research division of Stellar Solutions, a systems engineering services company. “We don’t claim that this signal is there before every earthquake, but it’s very interesting.”
Although it has always been controversial, the idea that the magnetic field might change before earthquakes has been around for a while. The US Geological Survey (USGS) states that “Despite decades of work, there is no convincing evidence for the electromagnetic precursors of earthquakes.”
In collaboration with the Google Accelerated Science team, the scientists made use of magnetic field data from an array of magnetometers at 125 sensor stations along major faults in California. They collected data from 2005 to 2019, in which 19 earthquakes with a magnitude of 4.5 or greater occurred on the faults.
Their multi-stage analysis took into account other types of processes that may affect magnetometers but are unrelated to earthquakes, such as rush hour traffic. According to Schneider, distinguishing this type of noise from potential earthquake-related signals is the biggest barrier to interpretation of this data. After training their algorithms on half of the data set, the researchers identified a signal indicating changes in the magnetic field between 72 and 24 hours before the earthquakes.
In the future, Schneider said, he would like to further refine the models to remove more ambient noise from the magnetometers. In this study, for example, calculating the mean effect of solar activity greatly improved the results. In the ongoing work, the team will use the remote station’s data to eliminate noise from solar activity.
The work suggests that “there may be regular detectable changes in the magnetic field which, with further study and isolation, could actually support the construction of a prediction system in the future,” Schneider said.
Reference: “Case-control study of a decade of California geomagnetometers reveals modest signal 24-72 hours before earthquakes” by William D. MacLean, Thomas Blair, Patrick Riley and Daniel Schneider, September 1, 2022, Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. DOI: 10.1029/2022JB024109
Interesting earthquake facts: The world’s largest recorded earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (MW) was in Chile on May 22, 1960, and the largest earthquake recorded in the United States was of magnitude 9.2 on the Richter scale that struck Prince William Sound, Alaska on Good Friday, March 28, 1964, UTC, the deadliest earthquake in the world occurred in 1556 in central China. It struck an area where most people live in caves carved out of soft rock. These dwellings collapsed during the earthquake, killing an estimated 830,000 people. In 1976, another deadly earthquake occurred in Tangshan, China, killing more than 250,000 people, and the first reported earthquake in California was felt by Gaspar de Portola’s expedition in 1769 while the group was camping about 30 miles southeast of Los Angeles. Los Angeles. It is estimated that there are 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year. 100,000 of these can be felt, and 100 of them deal damage. Each year the Southern California region has about 10,000 earthquakes. Most of them are too small to even feel them. Only several hundred larger than size 3.0, and only about 15-20 larger than size 4.0. However, if a major earthquake occurs, the series of aftershocks will produce more earthquakes of all sizes for several months.
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