Will an earthquake cause a volcano to erupt or will a volcanic eruption cause a major earthquake?

This map reflects the epicenter of each earthquake that hits the Big Island of Hawaii or nearby coastal waters over the past seven days. Yellow points are the oldest, orange are the newest, and red is the last earthquake monitored by the USGS. Photo: USGS

More than 200 earthquakes have rocked Hawaii over the past seven days, according to the USGS, leaving geologists to think: Will all this earthquake trigger an eruption at Mauna Loa, the world’s largest active volcano, or will an eruption at the volcano trigger a powerful earthquake?

Mauna Loa is not erupting and there are no signs of an imminent eruption at this time. However, Mauna Loa remains in a state of increasing turmoil as evidenced by increased seismic activity and inflation at the summit. According to Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) scientists with the US Geological Survey, the current turbulence is likely driven by a resurgent intrusion of magma 2-5 miles below the summit of Mauna Loa.

In the past 24 hours, HVO has detected 35 small-scale earthquakes (<3 magnitude) 2-3 miles below the Mokuāʻweoweo caldera and 4-5 miles down the upper northwest side of Mauna Loa. Both areas were historically seismically active during the periods of unrest at Mauna Loa.

Meanwhile, near the town of Pahala on the southeastern slopes of Mauna Loa, the aftershocks of the devastating earthquake that hit the area on Friday continue. According to the USGS, over the past 48 hours, there have been more than 150 aftershocks in the Pahala region. Of these, 20 were greater than 2.5 degrees and 4 were greater than 3 seismic events.

This single, paved trail is the only trail that travels up the slopes of the active volcano in Hawaii. The Mauna Loa Access Route provides access to the various scientific research stations located on the slopes of the active volcano. Photo: Weatherboy

Overall, earthquake activity has been on the rise in recent weeks, leading authorities to shut down public access to the Mauna Loa volcano’s summit on October 6. The earthquake activity increased from 5-10 earthquakes per day since June 2022, to 10-20 earthquakes per day in July and August, and reaches approximately 40-50 earthquakes per day during the first two weeks of the month. The peak of more than 100 earthquakes per day occurred on September 23 and 29.

“Due to the high seismic activity on Mauna Loa and as a precaution, Hawaii Volcanoes National Park is closing the Mauna Loa back summit until further notice,” the National Park Service warned in a press release announcing the closure of the summit area. “Mauna Loa Trail and Mauna Loa Lookout at 6,662 feet remain open to the public.”

Scientists are trying to determine what will happen next.

HVO geophysicist Jefferson Chang said, “It’s a chicken or egg problem, whether these large, shallow earthquakes under volcanoes lead to erupting volcanoes, or if it is the metamorphic magma pressures along the faults that cause the earthquakes. These are two hypotheses for the end-member, and in fact, of It’s likely to be a combination of the two. Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions go hand in hand.”

Scientists at HVO look at many different observational streams to document changes in Mauna Loa’s behavior. Some of these changes may alert scientists to the possibility of a volcanic eruption. Large shallow earthquakes are one indicator that moves the probability of an eruption of Mauna Loa from “not necessarily” to “high probability”. For example, an earthquake measuring 6.7 on the Richter scale occurred a few months before the last eruption of Mauna Loa in 1984. The 1950 eruption was also preceded by a major earthquake, but only two days before the start of the eruption. But on the flip side, a gigantic earthquake, like the 1975 7.7-magnitude event at Kalapana, left no change in eruption activity on the island.

This map reflects earthquake events of magnitude 6 and the largest to strike in/around Hawaii since records were kept in 1868. Photo: USGS

“Large shallow earthquakes are not only a potential precursor to volcanic eruptions, but they can be a disaster in and of themselves,” Zhang said. “Damage from large earthquakes can be mitigated to reduce the risks and risks associated with violent shaking.

Hawaii has been hit by numerous earthquakes over the years, causing significant damage and loss of life – even in the absence of a volcanic eruption. According to the USGS, since 1868, there have been more than 30 seismic events of magnitude 6.0 or greater on the islands, most of which have affected the Big Island of Hawaii.

Wai’ohino Chuch in Ka’us was reduced to a pile of rubble after the 1868 earthquake. Photo: USGS/HL Chase, Courtesy of the Hawaii Historical Society

The largest earthquake that struck Hawaii occurred in the Kao region in the southern part of the Big Island on April 2, 1868. The estimated magnitude event was 7.9, which was equivalent in magnitude to the San Francisco earthquake of 1906 in California. While the “extremely violent tremors” were felt in the southern parts of the Big Island of Hawaii, they were felt by most islands in the Hawaiian island chain. Damage was extensive across the southern coast of Hawaii; Moderate damage has also been reported across Maui.

The October 1929 earthquake caused extensive damage to the orange areas of Hawaii. Photo: USGS

The devastating earthquake brought down stone walls and houses, opening cracks in the ground, and was so dangerous that it sent people off their feet. The earthquake triggered a 60-degree tsunami along the Kao and Puna coast, killing 46 people there. It caused multiple landslides, including one in Cow Wood Valley, where an additional 31 people died. Despite the earthquake’s intensity, there have been only short-lived eruptions at both Mauna Loa and Kilauea in Hawaii.

On October 5, 1929, a magnitude 6.5 magnitude event hit the western parts of Hawaii near Hualalai Volcano. According to the USGS, more than 6,200 foreboding and aftershocks rocked the area. Homes, water tanks, stone fences, and roads were damaged in western Hawaii, leaving many people camping outside during the swarm in fear that their homes would collapse on them.

On April 26, 1973, another violent earthquake struck Hawaii north of Hilo. This magnitude 6.2 event generated more than $5.75 million in damages in that time, with water and electricity services disrupted and homes and businesses destroyed. The rockslides caused by the earthquake closed roads. At least 11 infections have been reported in the Waimea and Hilo communities on the island of Hawaii.

A violent earthquake in 1979 shook this coastal coconut grove into the ocean while a 48-degree tsunami devastated the coast. Photo: USGS The November 29, 1975 earthquake caused extensive damage across the eastern parts of the island and triggered a deadly tsunami. Photo: USGS

On November 29, 1975, another powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake hit the Pune region, causing great damage and a deadly tsunami. Roads cracked as houses shifted from foundations. The tsunami, which was as high as 48 feet in some locations, caused extensive damage to the island’s southern coast. In Halapp, two campers died and 19 others were injured when they were swept by a tsunami. Because of the earthquake’s intensity, the coastline dropped by 11°C during the earthquake, causing the coastal coconut to submerge into the ocean there.

The 2006 earthquake triggered a massive rockslide that diverted the Honoken Noi Stream River in northeastern Hawaii. Photo: USGS

In October 2006, a pair of severe earthquakes hit the northwest region of the Big Island of Hawaii. Minutes after a 6.7-magnitude event occurred in Kihului Bay, a 6.0-magnitude earthquake struck off Mahukona Beach on October 15, 2006. Together, these earthquakes caused extensive damage across Kauaihai, Waikoloa, Weima, and Kohala. Boat harbors, homes, bridges and even the resort were badly damaged in the earthquake. Mauna Kea Beach Resort, an upscale resort on the coast of South Kohala, has been closed for repairs and alterations after engineers found the earthquake left resort ownership precarious. The earthquake caused more than $200 million in damages.

A pair of earthquakes in October 2006 caused a great deal of damage around the island of Hawaii. Photo: USGS

The devastating 2006 earthquake did not change the volcanic activity on the island, but the powerful earthquake in 2018 did.

On May 4, 2018, a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.9 occurred in the Buna region. Felt across the state, the event resulted in structural damage in the Hilo and Puna areas. It was the largest earthquake to hit Hawaii since 1975. But news of the earthquake was overshadowed by the largest volcanic eruption in the Kilauea region of the Near East in more than 200 years, which resulted in multiple fissures spewing lava into populated parts of eastern Hawaii.

Scientists are not sure if the increased magnitude of earthquakes in Mauna Loa will lead to a volcanic eruption. Or if the inevitable eruption will cause great earthquakes on the Big Island.

Mauna Loa last erupted in 1984 and began with a seismic swarm. At 10:55 pm on March 24, the seismic rate increased significantly after a period of high seismic activity. Instead of dozens of earthquakes per day, earthquakes were occurring 2-3 times per minute. By 11:30 PM, a strong seismic tremor had begun, indicating that magma was moving underground and approaching the surface. A short time later, at 1:30 a.m. on March 25, lava erupted from the volcano’s summit.

HVO research geophysicist Ingrid Johansson says, “The rapid onset of the intense turbulence that led to the 1984 eruption is typical of Mauna Loa eruptions observed in the past two centuries. In addition to the rapid onset, volcanic eruptions tend to migrate down any of the Mauna fault zones. The loa has been found to be of significant size and the resulting pyroclastic flows can move rapidly from its sloping vents toward the ocean.”

The current episode of turbulence at Mauna Loa began in late 2014 with increased rates of inflationary deformation and earthquakes. These rates declined in 2017-2018, but started to rise again in 2019 and have remained fairly constant since then, with seismic rates averaging around 20 per day. A marked seismic swarm occurred from late January to mid-April 2021 and was accompanied by changes in the tilt of the Earth’s surface recorded by the summit tilt scale. This was an unprecedented observation indicating that magma was approaching the surface. Another short swarm and tilt event was observed in early August 2022.

On September 22, 2022, the magnitude of the earthquakes jumped from 20 per day to 100+ per day.

“This spike in activity is a good reminder to prepare for a volcanic eruption, whether you live on the sides of Mauna Loa or elsewhere on the island of Hawaii,” Johansson said.

In recent days, officials have urged people to develop a plan in the event of an eruption; Including in this planning is to pack a “go bag” just in case an eruption occurs soon.

This map shows the response time people can expect based on the Mauna Loa eruptions over the past 200 years. The different sectors around Mauna Loa are colored according to how quickly the lava reaches the populated areas. The warmer the color, the faster the flows will travel. Lava flows at Mauna Loa over the past 200 years are shown in grey, and numbers along the shoreline indicate times of lava moving into the ocean after the vent(s) opened. The large and bold numbers record the average effusion rates of different parts of the volcano in millions of cubic meters per day (Mm3/d). Photo: USGS

Today, the Hawaii County Civil Defense echoed that message with an update that went viral on the island at 12 p.m. local time. The US Geological Survey’s Hawaiian Volcano Observatory reports that earthquake activity continues at Mauna Loa. The Civil Defense Bulletin said the advisory alert status had not changed and Mauna Loa did not show signs of an imminent explosion. “Your civil defense agency is closely monitoring the situation and in coordination with the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory will notify you of any changes that may affect your safety.”

There will be devastating earthquakes on the island of Hawaii and the largest active volcano in the world, Mauna Loa, is likely to erupt in the not too distant future. But precisely when these events will occur and if one will lead to the other remains beyond the understanding of today’s geologists.

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