USGS experts predict when a 7.5-magnitude earthquake could hit the Gulf region after the 5.1 earthquake near San Jose

SAN JOSE, CA (KGO) – Emergency alerts were sent seconds before the 5.1-magnitude earthquake east of San Jose on Tuesday. Did you get one?

The country launched an app called MyShake in 2019 to warn people with an alert on their cell phones before the ground started shaking. Professor Richard Allen is director of the UC Berkeley Seismology Laboratory where the app was developed.

Main story: Strongest Bay Area earthquake in 8 years strikes near San Jose

“We’re going to seriously consider the feedback we’re getting from people,” Allen said. “Are we alerting the right group of people? Do we need to alert a wider area?”

Warnings are managed through a system operated by the USGS and the California Department of Emergency Services. This technology has been in the works for the past decade, says Allen, but has only been on the market for a few years.

“A magnitude 5 is not a massive earthquake, and we wouldn’t expect major damage if there was any at all,” Allen said. “We need to be prepared for an earthquake much bigger than this.”

Video: Aftershocks as strong as 4.0 as possible after the 5.1 San Jose earthquake, says Dr. Lucy Jones

So, what are the odds of a bigger earthquake in the Bay Area? And how bad could it be?

“It’s a real threat that we all have to be prepared for,” USGS seismologist and advisor Ross Stein said. We are always worried about the possibility of a magnitude 7 earthquake.”

Stein explains that the magnitude 5.1 earthquake along the Calaveras Fault on Tuesday – one of the most “deadly” faults. He says a large part of the Gulf region could be at the highest risk.

“The Calaveras fault connects to the Hayward fault, creating an extremely long fault that, if ruptured together, could cause a 7.5-magnitude earthquake,” Stein said. “Talk on the Bay Area’s most populous corridor…from Oakland, to Hayward, to San Jose, to Morgan Hill.”

Video: Cal students were taking an earthquake exam when a 5.1 earthquake struck near SJ

RELATED: California unveils first statewide earthquake early warning system

The Bay Area was a training ground for earthquake warning systems. Stein says the best alert recorded is about 10 seconds.

“Can we create a system that gives us more than 10 seconds? Probably not. Because for the vibration to be really strong, it has to be very close. If it’s very close, the seismic wave will arrive very close with respect to our ability to identify that wave,” Stein said.

But scientists at the US Geological Survey note that new research is in progress to bolster this.

“Where we don’t just use Earth-wide earthquake early-warning seismographs, but everyone’s cellphones. There will always be more cellphones in the San Andreas Fault than there are seismographs. And we can eventually harness them in the network to create a stronger warning,” Stein said. .

The timeliness and accuracy of these alerts will be critical to the next major earthquake. To put it into perspective, the tremor is 10 times stronger with a magnitude 6 earthquake, and 100 times stronger with a magnitude 7 earthquake, according to scientists at the University of California, Berkeley.

Click here for the latest stories and videos about earthquakes here in the Bay Area and around the world, and click here for more information on disaster preparedness.

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