Where will the next Great Bay Area earthquake shake?

HEWARD, CA (Corona) – Predicting where and when the next “big strike” will strike the San Francisco Bay Area is a challenging task for a seismologist. Five major fault lines cross the Bay Area: San Andreas, Calaveras, San Gregorio, Hayward and Rodgers Creek.

The USGS defines a fault as “a fracture or area of ​​cracks between two blocks of rock. Faults allow the blocks to move relative to each other. This movement may occur quickly, in the form of an earthquake—or it may occur slowly, in the form of creep.”

Without enough creep, pressure will build up until an earthquake occurs.

Tuesday’s earthquake, measuring 5.1 on the Richter scale, originated from the Calaveras Fault and was centered east of San Jose. Fortunately, San Jose came out without major damage or injuries. However, the USGS warns, “We live in an earthquake country and we must all be prepared for the next big earthquake.”

Major Fault Lines in the Gulf Region (Photo courtesy of the USGS)

Which rift in the Bay Area will be erupted by a major earthquake, then?

“The Hayward Fault will erupt violently again, possibly soon,” USGS scientists wrote in their 2018 study. “The fault could be ready to trigger another earthquake of magnitude 6.8 to 7.0.”

Seismic waves from the Hayward Fault caused a powerful earthquake on October 21, 1868. Its magnitude was estimated at 6.8. Because seismometers have not yet been invented, there are no earthquake records.

USGS scientists wrote: “The Hayward Fault earthquake of 1868 is a reminder of the immense power lurking beneath the Earth’s surface in the San Francisco Bay Area.”

“The strong shaking lasted for more than 40 seconds, destroying many East Bay cities. Brick buildings, walls, and chimneys in Oakland, San Francisco, Santa Rosa and San Jose were also severely damaged in Napa and Hollister. Several witnesses reported seeing the ground moving in waves. The tremors shook Backsliding Bay Area for Weeks Although the area was sparsely populated at the time, an earthquake in 1868 killed about 30 people, USGS scientists wrote.

In 1868, there were only about 24,000 residents living in Alameda County. Today, the county has a population of 2.4 million, making the Hayward Fault the most urban earthquake fault in the United States.

The Hayward Fault earthquake of 1868 caused the collapse of the second story of the Alameda County Courthouse in San Leandro (Image via Bancroft Library, University of California)

The most famous fault in the Bay Area is the San Andreas Fault. It was responsible for both the Great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 and the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989.

Like the Hayward Volt earthquake of 1868, the 6.9-magnitude Loma Prieta caused the Earth to tip over dramatically. The epicenter is located in the Santa Cruz Mountains along the San Andreas Fault. The violent shaking lasted for 15 seconds. On October 17, 1989, highways collapsed and buildings above the victims collapsed. Some residents were so terrified that they had not returned home for weeks, sleeping outside on mattresses or in tents. The earthquake killed more than 60 people and injured nearly 4,000 others.

Buildings collapsed along the Pacific Garden Mall in Santa Cruz in 1989 (USGS Photo)

The Great San Francisco earthquake of 1906 had a catastrophic magnitude of 7.9. Huge fires broke out in San Francisco. The ground shook with such force from the San Andreas Fault that it could be felt from Los Angeles to Oregon. “The violent shocks permeated the strong vibrations, which lasted about 45 to 60 seconds,” the USGS wrote. Hundreds of victims were killed.

Before Tuesday, the last notable earthquake in the Calaveras Fault occurred around the same time of year, in October of 2007, when the 5.4-magnitude Alum Rock earthquake ruptured. Calaveras also caused the 6.2-magnitude Morgan Hill earthquake in 1984.

The California Earthquake Probability Working Group has determined an 11% probability that the Calaveras Fault will cause an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater in the next 30 years.

Why does California have so many earthquakes? The answer can be traced back to 200 million years ago.

The USGS explains, “This region of the United States has been tectonically active since the supercontinent Pangea separated nearly 200 million years ago, in large part because it is close to the western boundary of the North American plate. Since the formation of the San Fault System Andreas 25-30 million years ago, the juxtaposition of the Pacific and North American plates led to the formation of many faults in California that accommodate lateral movement between the plates.

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