Do earthquakes happen often now? explained

The National Center of Seismology said a 4.1-magnitude earthquake hit the Amritsar district of Punjab early Monday morning.

Earlier on Saturday, strong tremors were felt in Delhi-NCR following a 5.4-magnitude earthquake in Nepal. Tremors were also felt in Uttarakhand, including New Tehri, Pitorajgarh, Bageshwar, Puri, and other cities. It is also felt by parts of Uttar Pradesh.

Meanwhile, this was the second earthquake for Nepal. On Wednesday, a 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck Nepal, killing at least six people.

Every earthquake brings with it its fair share of fear. There is also a lot of controversy about the world heading into a climate disaster zone, due to rising average global temperatures.

Read also | ‘Scary’: Delhi – NCR, parts of northern India feel strong tremors from 6.3 earthquake in Nepal; Another earthquake hits Pithuragarh in Ukhand

Do earthquakes happen often?

According to a report by Straits Times, each year approximately 15 large earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 7.0 occur. Only seven such earthquakes were recorded in the first 10 months of 2022, indicating that the frequency of these disasters is within the normal range, said Dr Karen Lithjoy, a senior research fellow at the Earth Observatory in Singapore.

She added that a few more large earthquakes are expected before the end of 2022, based on statistical forecasts of 15 major earthquakes annually.

The occurrence of large earthquakes around the world is a random process. This means that clusters of earthquakes can occur within a few days at times and at intervals greater than weeks or months at other times.

While three major earthquakes in the same country on the same date are highly unlikely, it is not impossible. In Mexico, for example, three major earthquakes struck on September 19: one in 1985, one in 2017, and one in 2022, all in different parts of the country.

Some experts also believe that instant information can also cause cognitive biases such as a cluster delusion. When we see earthquakes in the news, we think there are more of them.

(Cluster illusion is the tendency to misinterpret small samples of random distributions as containing large “lines” or “clusters.” The reason is the human tendency to underestimate the amount of variance that is likely to appear (because of chance) in a small sample of random data or pseudorandom.)

What causes earthquakes?

The Earth’s surface is not a continuous surface. Instead, it is made up of huge chunks known as tectonic plates. Earthquakes occur along tectonic plate boundaries or at the sites of cracks within plates, known as faults.

The movement of the Earth’s tectonic plates. (Photo: shutterstock)

The tectonic plates that make up the Earth’s crust are constantly changing. When the edges of these plates slide against each other in fault areas, friction slows them down, causing stress to build up over time. When the force of motion finally overcomes the friction, parts of the crust break or shift, releasing pent-up pressure in the form of seismic waves. This is a naturally occurring earthquake, also known as a tectonic earthquake.

Is climate change linked to earthquakes?

The Straits Times report shows that climate change is becoming more widely recognized, but it is unlikely that any of the recent earthquakes are related to it. However, according to some scientific studies, climate change may have a slight impact on geological phenomena such as earthquakes, but the effects will be completely local.

Changes in the Earth’s ice cover are one of the climatic factors associated with earthquakes.

To represent: Ice melts in water at the Mont-Main glacier in Verbeckel near Evolen, Switzerland, August 29, 2022. REUTERS/Denis Balibos

In the polar regions, glaciers and permanent ice sheets exert tremendous pressure on the bedrock, causing it to flex downward. When the ice melts and the weight of the Earth’s crust is released, the Earth responds with a bouncing, like a giant slow trampoline. This rebound can have an impact on geological faults, potentially causing earthquakes, although these will be limited to icy areas.

However, the effects are secondary to the main cause of large earthquakes, which is the movement of tectonic plates.

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