San Francisco has a 51% chance of a major earthquake occurring within the next 30 years

Over the weekend, a 3.6-magnitude earthquake struck along the Hayward Fault in northern California, a fault that the USGS reports has a good chance of a major earthquake in the next 30 years.

According to the US Geological Survey, the chances of a magnitude 7 earthquake hitting San Francisco from the Hayward Fault in the next 30 years are more than 50%.

According to the USGS’ HayWired Earthquake Scenario, approximately 8,900 people will die and 16,000 more will be injured in the event of a magnitude 7 seismic earthquake while more than $82 billion in property losses and direct business interruptions occur.

Seismologist Lucy Jones has estimated the probability of an earthquake at the Hayward Fault at 100%, “If you give me enough time.”

And earthquake engineering expert Keith Porter told USA Today, “It could happen tomorrow. … I don’t know when … [but] it will happen.”

The USGS estimated that more than 22,000 people may need rescue from stalled elevators and another 2,400 people from collapsed buildings, adding that the chances of an earthquake in San Francisco in the next 30 years rose to 72% if the earthquake had a magnitude of 6.7 or greater and the probability of Earthquake. 7.5 earthquake was 20%.

The USGS also assumed that the chances of an earthquake occurring in Los Angeles in the next 30 years were 60% for a magnitude 6.7 earthquake, 46% for a magnitude 7 earthquake, and 31% for a magnitude 7.5 earthquake.

Every time an earthquake measures a one integer increase in magnitude, 32 times as much energy is released. According to the USGS, “a magnitude 5.3 earthquake is a moderate earthquake, and a magnitude 6.3 is a strong earthquake.”

The last time a major earthquake occurred in the Hayward Fault was on October 21, 1868; Its magnitude has been estimated to be between 6.8 and 7.2. According to scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, the average range between the last five major earthquakes on the fault was 140 years.

The Hayward Fault is part of the San Andreas Fault system – which serves as a connection point between tectonic plates in North America and the Pacific Ocean – and travels from the Gulf of California to Cape Mendocino in the north.

According to the USGS, reports of it being affected by the earthquake at the Hayward Fault over the weekend came from the East Bay, San Francisco, and the San Francisco Peninsula.

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