Climate Change and Seismic Vulnerability in Asia and the Pacific: An Energy and Transport Infrastructure Assessment (December 2022) – World

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Executive summary

This report uses an innovative methodology that geolocates more than 30,000 transportation and energy infrastructure assets in the Asia-Pacific region, then individually rates them for the degree and characteristics of current and future exposure to extreme heat, water stress, flooding, extreme precipitation, sea level surge, typhoons and earthquakes. It aims to contribute to a better understanding of the region’s vulnerability to climate change and earthquake risks and to raise awareness of the need to consider resilience measures in infrastructure planning.

This report is not intended to be an exhaustive analysis of climate change and earthquake risk in the region. The distribution of assets across region and economies, along with the limitations of the available data, limit the comparability of the results. Despite these limitations, the report makes an important contribution to understanding the vulnerability of the region’s infrastructure to these risks. In addition, an exposure assessment such as the one presented here is just a first step in understanding the risks these assets are exposed to. With appropriate additional information that can be obtained at the national and local levels, a vulnerability assessment should be undertaken to complement the exposure assessment. Together, these assessments will help guide efforts to build resilience in the region.

The report presents two key messages of relevance to policymakers in the Asia-Pacific region. First, the region’s transport and energy infrastructure is highly vulnerable to climate change and earthquakes. About 62% and 44% of the transportation assets included in the study were rated red flag or high (the two highest exposure categories in this report) for flooding and extreme heat, respectively. Water stress accounts for the largest proportion of energy assets assessed rated red or high (45.1%). A large share of the assets included in this analysis are exposed to earthquakes (72.4%), hurricanes (22.4%), and sea level rise (8.3%). The seemingly low share of assets exposed to sea level rise and hurricanes does not mean that sea level rise and hurricanes are not significant risks in the region. Results are affected by the nature of these risks; Sea level rise and hurricanes are relevant to only a subset of assets in coastal regions. Projected sea level rise and increases in intense tropical cyclones will have severe impacts on some subregions in the Asia-Pacific region. Of the assets included in the study, 2.5% were rated red flag (none rated high) for exposure to sea level rise and 2.2% were rated red flag or high for hurricane exposure. Among the regions studied, the Pacific region has the highest share of assets exposed to sea level rise at 39.8%, followed by Southeast Asia at 17.5%. At the same time, exposure to cyclones is most significant in South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific with over 50% of the analyzed assets exposed.

The second key message of the report relates to the importance of a multi-risk approach to building infrastructure resilience, as three-quarters of the assets included in the analysis are exposed to four or more risks. In addition, one in three assets rated red or high are rated at two or more risks. The percentage varies by region and is particularly high in the Pacific (55.8%), South Asia (48.4%), and Southeast Asia (41.7%).

These results emphasize the importance of considering appropriate climate and seismic information in infrastructure planning. To go beyond climate protection, upstream infrastructure planning should focus on the resilience of individual assets and identify investment opportunities that enhance the resilience of a wide range of systems. A holistic approach to building infrastructure resilience takes into account the benefits of services provided by infrastructure and vulnerability of infrastructure systems to multiple risks, and assesses the underlying vulnerabilities more broadly. This is necessary to enable risk-informed investment planning, concrete investment decisions, and ensure that national priorities are translated and communicated down to the project level and investment lines.

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