Volcano Watch: Earthquakes: Beyond the Counts

Seismology is one of several important components used at the Hawaii Volcano Observatory to assess volcanic disturbances and hazards. Often, early signs of volcanic disturbances, before lava is seen, are provided by earthquake activity occurring deeper into the Earth than other volcano-monitoring capabilities can reach.

Seismologists, or earthquake specialists, look at their data in a variety of ways to explain the story of volcanic processes occurring underground. As a first step, the HVO notes earthquake rates, locations, and magnitudes, as these features can be quickly identified to reflect the general times, locations, and strength of the disturbances.

We also study the details of recorded earthquakes to infer how the earth moves and shakes. Human-generated noise (such as helicopters and quarry explosions) and atmospheric signals (such as thunder and wind) can make volcanic signals difficult to identify.

By analogy, think of the different sounds you hear when turning on and using a garden hose. First, there is a squeak when pressure first builds up. And then, as the water pushes the air inside the hose, there are gurgling and crackling sounds. Finally, there is a steady hum as the water flows smoothly from the end of the hose. At HVO, our seismic tools are our ears as we track magma inside volcanoes and lava as it erupts.

The earthquakes help tell the story of a seemingly calm volcano. Especially when the stories of these volcanoes and their seismicity have been told in the past.

It has provided Kilauea HVO with many opportunities to observe the relationships between earthquakes and volcanic activity. We have identified source regions of stationary earthquakes that show increases in seismic activity as the volcano approaches eruption. We also learn about the types of earthquakes that indicate magma movement. Sometimes it has been possible to predict where and when the eruptions started, based on patterns of earthquake activity.

Mauna Loa is also an active volcano. Over the past two centuries, we have seen successive periods of change between volcanic eruptions. Between 1832 and 1950, Mauna Loa erupted, on average, every 3 to 7 years. Since 1950, the intervals have been much longer. After 1950, 25 years passed until the 1975 eruption of Mauna Loa summit, then another 9 years until the 1984 eruption. After that, 38 years passed until the last eruption in 2022 of the Northeast Rift region of Mauna Loa.

HVO’s recent seismic observations of Mauna Loa are relatively sparse compared to Kilauea’s. In addition, improvements in monitoring technology have greatly enhanced the capabilities of recording and analyzing HVO data. However, the 1975 and 1984 observations provide some useful clues to how Mauna Loa works.

In the spring of 1974, HVO seismologists noticed an increase in earthquake activity below the upper elevations of Mauna Loa. They installed additional seismographs and, without computers, manually counted and located earthquakes. The combined observations can be taken as a prediction of a successful eruption.

Current capabilities allow HVO to detect and locate earthquakes to levels far exceeding those found in 1975 and 1984. To better compare current earthquake patterns to these earlier eruptions, seismologists counted small earthquakes in September 2022 that were too small to be recorded by computer processing modern. This comparison showed a similar rise in seismic activity and led to community meetings in the following months to emphasize awareness, preparedness, and safety.

Further increases in seismicity in October 2022 reflected rapid changes in stress within the volcano, but the only imminent harbinger of lava popping up at the caldera’s summit was an hour-long tremor-like explosion of many small, shallow earthquakes just before the eruption began.

Each eruption provides new observations and data, adding to our ability, ideally, to learn and understand beyond the underlying numbers.

Next time you look at one of the volcanoes around the island, think about the different types of activities that take place and the stories that are told beneath the surface. Not only in the form of earthquakes you feel, but also in other subtle signals that sensitive instruments faintly pick up.

Volcano activity updates

Mauna Loa does not erupt. USGS Volcano Alert Level in ADVISORY. Mauna Loa updates are released weekly on Thursdays.

Webcam images show a weak, intermittent glow in the inactive northeast fissure 3 lava flow in the rift zone at night. Seismicity remains low and ground deformation rates have decreased. Sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission rates at background levels. For Mauna Loa monitoring data, see: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa/monitoring-data.

Killua does not explode. USGS Volcano Alert Level in ADVISORY. Kilauea updates are released weekly every Tuesday.

Lava supplies to Halema’uma’u lava lake in Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park were halted on December 9. SO2 emission rates have fallen to nearly pre-explosive background levels and were last measured at around 200 tons per day (t/d) on 14 December. Seismicity is high but stable, with few earthquakes. Over the past week, measures of inclination to the summit have recorded several deflationary and inflationary (DI) events. For Kilauea monitoring data, see https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/Kilauea/past-week-monitoring-data-Kilauea.

There have been five earthquakes with 3 or more felt reports in the Hawaiian Islands during the past week: M3.3 earthquake 2 km (0 mi) SW of Pahala at a depth of 30 km (19 mi) on Dec 21 at 3:10 am HST M3.1 earthquake 5 km (3 mi) SSW from Pahala at a depth of 29 km (18 mi) on December 20 at 8:22 pm HST, M3.2 earthquake 18 km (11 mi) southeast of Nalihu at a depth of 36 km (22 mi) on December 18 at 6:44 am BST, M3.3 earthquake 9 km (5 mi) northeast of Pahala at a depth of 30 km (18 mi) on December 16 at 12:17 pm HST, M4 earthquake. 0 28 km (17 mi) SSW from Hana at a depth of 31 km (19 mi) on Dec 16 at 6:47 am HST.

HVO continues to closely monitor the ongoing eruptions at Kilauea and Mauna Loa.

Please visit the HVO website to see previous Volcano Watch articles, Kilauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano photos and maps, recent earthquake information, and more. Email questions to [email protected].

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