323 years since the last major earthquake and tsunami | regional

Experts say it will happen again with a 10-15% chance of a mega earthquake occurring in the next 50 years

Corvallis, Oregon – It was the 323 year anniversary of the last major earthquake and tsunami that struck Oregon on Thursday, January 26, 1700.

Experts say it will happen again, with a 10-15% chance of a mega-quake occurring in the next 50 years.

Oregon State University marine geologist Chris Goldfinger says that on a scale of 1 to 10, with unpreparedness of 1 and fully preparedness of 10, we’re on a 1.5 in terms of preparedness for the next earthquake and tsunami.

“So far, the evidence for these events occurring across the entire length of the Cascadia Margin is very strong and about as tight as you can get in geology,” Goldfinger said.

He says sediment deposition readings show evidence of an undersea landslide more than 300 years ago. That would be consistent with a massive earthquake.

He also says that there is evidence in Japan of a distant tsunami on the same day.

Tree ring data from the Ghost Forest along the Oregon coast shows that around the year 1700, trees stopped growing and died suddenly, which Goldfinger says would be because the ground fell 6 feet, flooding and killing the trees with salt water.

Looking ahead, Goldfinger gives 10-15% of a strong earthquake and tsunami in the next 10-15 years.

“What you’ll get is a minute or two of light shaking. It will feel like someone was knocking on the street and everyone was looking around wondering what it was,” he says.

“That vibration comes from the initial P-Waves. Then the S-Waves come a minute later and that’s where the real shaking starts to happen,” he continued… It’s not a movie tsunami. It’s a series of waves that can take up to an hour or several hours to play out,” Goldfinger said.

We will need to modify our infrastructure to withstand a magnitude 9 earthquake, says Pedro Lomonoco, director of the Hindale Wave Research Laboratory in Corvallis.

“Houses that are less robust will be destroyed easily,” Lomonoko said.

He says the biggest priority should be building homes along the coast on stilts.

“What happens when you have the space to let the water through under the hull,” he said.

It also means that businesses, such as schools and hotels, that are in the tsunami flood area should be built with an evacuation area on the roof where people can go in the event of a tsunami warning.

Already, schools in coastal Oregon have erected vertical evacuation structures in the event of a tsunami.

This is a solvable problem. We discussed that we have this big problem but it has a solution. The solution is expensive, time consuming and requires consistent effort to solve the problem.”

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