Turkey-Syria Earthquake: What Scientists Know

The earthquake destroyed buildings in the town of Jandris near Afrin, Syria. Photo by Rami El Sayed/AFP/Getty Images.

An earthquake measuring 7.8 on the Richter scale struck southeastern Turkey and parts of Syria in the early morning hours of February 6. At least 17,000 people are known to have died and thousands more injured. The earthquake was followed by an event measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale about 9 hours later, in addition to more than 200 aftershocks.

The earthquake and its aftershocks flattened buildings and prompted rescuers to dig through the concrete rubble to find survivors, with the death toll expected to increase even further. Nature spoke to four researchers about the seismic activity in the area and what the next few days will bring.

Turkey is located in an active earthquake zone

Most of Turkey lies on the Anatolian Plate between two major faults: the North Anatolian Rift and the East Anatolian Rift. The tectonic plate that holds the Arabian Peninsula, including Syria, is moving north and collides with the southern edge of Eurasia, which is pressing Turkey to the west, says David Rothery, a geologist at the Open University in Milton Keynes, UK. “Turkey is moving westward by about 2 cm per year along the East Anatolian Rift,” he adds. “Half the length of this fault is now illuminated by earthquakes.”

People in Turkey are well aware of their vulnerability to earthquakes, says Seyhun Puskulcu, a seismologist and coordinator of the Turkish Earthquake Foundation, which is based in Istanbul. “This came as no surprise,” says Boskulko, who was touring the cities of Adana, Tarsus, Mersin, and western regions of Turkey last week, giving earthquake awareness workshops.

The main epicenter was 26 km east of the city of Nordağı in the Turkish province of Gaziantep, at a depth of 17.9 km. The 7.5-magnitude event occurred about 4 km southeast of Ikinosu in Kahramanmaraş province (see ‘Earthquakes and aftershocks’).

US Geological Survey Earthquake Hazard Program

The war destabilized buildings already in danger

Fatalities in earthquakes are often caused by falling bricks and masonry. According to the US Geological Survey, many people in Turkey who were affected by the earthquake live in structures that are very likely to be damaged by vibration, using unreinforced masonry and low-rise concrete frames.

In a study1 published last March in Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, Arzu Arslan Kilam of the Middle East Technical University in Ankara and colleagues indicated that the city center of Gaziantep would experience moderate to severe damage of up to 6.5 degrees. Earthquake. This is because most of the current buildings are low-rise brick structures built close to each other.

In 1999, a 7.4-magnitude earthquake struck 11 kilometers southeast of Izmit, Turkey, killing more than 17,000 people and leaving more than 250,000 homeless. After this tragedy, the Turkish government introduced new building codes and a compulsory earthquake insurance system. However, many of the buildings damaged in this week’s earthquake were built before 2000, says Mustafa Erdak, a civil engineer at Bogazici University, Turkey.

Things are even worse in Syria, where more than 11 years of conflict have made it impossible to enforce building standards. The earthquake hit northwestern regions of Syria, with buildings collapsing in Aleppo and Idlib. Some of the war-damaged buildings in Syria have been rebuilt using low-quality materials or “whatever materials are available,” says Rothy. They might have fallen more easily than things built at somewhat more cost. We haven’t figured that out yet,” he adds.

What then?

Researchers say people need to prepare for more earthquakes and aftershocks, as well as worsening weather conditions. “The potential for major aftershocks causing more damage will continue for weeks and months,” says Ilan Kellman, who studies disaster and health at University College London.

“The weather forecast for the area tonight is below freezing. That means people trapped under the rubble, who could be rescued, could freeze to death. So those risks continue.

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