Nobody can predict earthquakes, but we can predict them. Here’s how

After devastating earthquakes, it is common to see a discussion of earthquake prediction. Predicting earthquakes requires, in advance, the exact time, location, and magnitude of the future earthquake.

However, earthquake prediction has never been successfully achieved in a way that can be replicated.

“Forecasts” are often vague, such as describing a future earthquake as “sooner or later,” and the underlying methods are not scientifically based.

This does not mean that we do not know anything about the earthquakes that will occur in the future. While seismologists are not able to predict earthquakes, we are able to predict them.

What is the difference between prediction and prediction?

Forecasts tell you the chance or probability of a group of future earthquakes in a particular area. This includes how big (magnitude) the earthquakes are, and how frequently they occur over a given time period.

Earthquake predictions are based on observations of past seismic activity, which may extend back decades, centuries, or even thousands of years. These observations are analyzed and modeled, and we use our understanding of the physics of earthquake occurrence to determine the chances of future seismic activity.

Ground rupture caused by the magnitude 6.5 earthquake of 1968 in Meekering, Western Australia. Observations of earthquakes over the past two hundred years or so indicate that Australia experiences an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater, on average, about once every six years. Australian Seismic Engineering Society

When looking at catalogs of the time, location, and magnitude of past earthquakes, it becomes abundantly clear that damaging earthquakes are more likely to strike along the boundaries of the tectonic plates that make up the Earth’s crust than within those plates.

In recent decades, the installation of global networks of seismic recorders has also allowed smaller earthquakes and tremors to be detected—including events too small for people to perceive. These data revealed important relationships between the relative numbers of small and large earthquakes that support earthquake prediction. Earthquake predictions can be made both in the short term (weeks, months, years) and long term (decades to centuries).

How small they are gives us clues about large earthquakes

One of the fundamental discoveries of seismology is the fact that, in a given area, there will be, on average, about ten times as many earthquakes of magnitude 2.0 as earthquakes of magnitude 3.0. There will also be ten times the size of 3.0 as much as 4.0, and so on.

This relationship allows us to use small earthquakes, which occur often, to predict large, less frequent earthquakes — which may not yet be in the historical records.

Observations and analyzes of major earthquakes from around the world over the past century or more have helped us understand their aftershocks. These shocks diminish over time in a statistically distinct fashion.

Read more: Satellite measurements of slow Earth motions may provide a better tool for predicting earthquakes

This relationship is used for short-term predictions of active seismic sequences, to estimate the magnitude and frequency of earthquakes in the weeks, months, and years following the main earthquake.

In these forecasts, aftershocks of large magnitude are always possible, and in some cases, they can be even larger than the main shock. Such projections have been used in many countries around the world.

After the magnitude 7.1 earthquake in Ridgecrest, California, in 2019, a series of forecasts were released and updated as new data was received. Currently, there is a 10% chance of a single aftershock of magnitude 5.0 to 5.9 in the Ridgecrest area in the next year.

Knowing what to expect during an active sequence is important for planning how to respond to and recover from a strong earthquake.

Records in rock are the linear surface expressions of an Alpine Fault, seen along the western side of the Red Hills, Wairau Valley, Aotearoa New Zealand. There is a 75% chance that a major earthquake will occur on this fault in the next 50 years. Lloyd Homer/GNS Science, author provided

Geological investigations are expanding the record of major earthquakes beyond those captured in earthquake catalogs. These studies look for evidence of earth-shredding earthquakes along a specific fault.

Take the Alpine Rift, a 600-kilometer section of the Pacific Ocean border and the Australian Plates in New Zealand’s Aotearoa. Analysis of the rocks along the fault provided strong evidence that over the past 8,000 years or so, one earth-shattering earthquake of about 8.0 magnitude has occurred about every 300 years.

The most recent major fault in the Alpine Fault was in 1717, more than 300 years ago.

Read more: New Zealand’s next big Alpine earthquake likely will come sooner than we thought, according to study

Using this data, seismologists have estimated that there is a high probability — about a 75% chance — of a fracture at this fault in the next 50 years. There is about an 80% chance that this earthquake will be of magnitude 8.0 or higher.

This type of medium to long term forecasting allows for preparation such as emergency response planning. In the case of the Alpine Fault, the AF8 program was put in place to keep the community informed and engaged, and to plan response and build resilience for expected future earthquakes.

Maps and symbols

Our best long-term forecasts use data from earthquake catalogs and geological studies, combined with earthquake behavior patterns and other knowledge such as geodetic models – which use GPS networks to tell us how the Earth’s surface is under pressure and moving as tectonic plates change.

These predictions usually provide not only the magnitude and location, but also the range of ground shaking intensity from future earthquakes.

Map of global earthquake hazard showing areas of low ground shaking risk for earthquakes (cool colors) and areas of high risk (warm colors). GEM/Pagani et al. 2018; 2020, CC BY-NC

Much like climate forecasts, these forecasts combine multiple models into a single forecast. This is used to map areas with low to high probability of experiencing damaging earthquakes.

These long-term projections inform building codes around the world, guiding the design and construction of buildings and infrastructure to withstand powerful ground shaking from future earthquakes and, ultimately, to save lives.

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