A massive earthquake may reshape Turkish and Syrian politics

What is the effect of the strong earthquake that struck Turkey and Syria last week?

The total death toll is over thirty-six thousand at the time of writing, but it is too early to be sure of the full impact. In Syria, the earthquake and its aftershocks hit Idlib, the country’s civil war-ravaged region and one of the last rebel-held areas. This adds more misery especially since the regime will prioritize its own interests over the affected population. Ironically, Turkey, which sits on the same geological fault lines as Syria, is Damascus’ primary adversary in the same quake-hit area. However, Turkey has been maneuvering recently to mend its relations with Syria. A common disaster can provide the necessary pretext to speed up this process.

Outside countries and international organizations play a critical role in relief and recovery, especially in Syria. Is there a risk of internal tensions threatening their response?

More from our experts

Idlib has borne the brunt of the disaster. So far, with UN aid limited to one border crossing, there has been little or no flow of relief supplies to affected areas of Syria. The White Helmets, a major NGO operating in the area, accused the United Nations of not providing enough assistance. Bashar al-Assad’s regime will be tempted to take advantage of this catastrophe to reunite the country under its control. He has already indicated that he wants to coordinate all relief with the central government in Damascus, despite the fact that he does not control the most affected population. To facilitate relief efforts, regime officials and the World Health Organization are in discussions about reopening a border crossing closed since 2013.

Comparisons have been made to the disastrous 1999 Turkey earthquake in terms of poor preparedness. Can Turkey reduce the number of victims in this disaster?

More about:

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

turkey

Syrian Civil War

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

Despite repeated assurances that the country had learned its lessons from the 1999 earthquake, the scale of the current disaster indicates that the authorities were completely lacking in preparation. It is clear that the billions of Turkish liras collected by the government through the special earthquake tax were not used to bolster the infrastructure of the affected region or the capabilities of the country’s emergency response system. In fact, the budget for the Emergency and Disaster Management Authority (AFAD), the main rescue organization, has been slashed by 33 percent. [article in Turkish] In the national budget for 2023.

world this week

A weekly roundup of the latest news from the CFR on the week’s biggest foreign policy stories, including summaries, opinions, and explanation. every Friday.

A summary of global news developments with CFR analysis delivered to your inbox each morning. most days of the week.

Address original analytics, data visualizations, and commentary, examining debates and efforts to improve health around the world. weekly.

By entering your email and clicking subscribe, you agree to receive advertisements from CFR about our products and services, as well as invitations to CFR events. You also agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.

Even worse is the 2018 decision to push through a legal amnesty legalizing thousands of illegally constructed buildings without proper documentation and inspection. All the residents had to do was pay a fine which simply boosted the state coffers. In fact, on a 2019 visit to Kahramanmaras, the epicenter, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan proudly declared [article in Turkish] that with the amnesty, the government had “solved the problem of 144,556 citizens of Maras alone”. In fact, the “problem” for him was not that citizens lived in precarious and precarious housing, but rather that they were unable to obtain title documents for buildings that had been designated “illegal”. With a simple stroke of a pen, these builds have been effectively rendered secure. Obviously, “Earthquake” did not agree.

The relief response by the Turkish authorities was poorly coordinated and late in arrival; There are still many affected areas waiting for supplies and volunteers. By contrast, the civil society response has been impressive: volunteers and aid parcels poured in from all over the country as locals took the initiative to rescue the victims. Erzu Yilmaz, assistant professor at the University of Kurdistan, simply summed it up [article in Turkish]”There is no state, but there is a people.”

More from our experts

How has Erdogan responded so far, and what repercussions could the earthquake have on the general elections in Turkey on May 14? President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inspects the damages of the earthquake that struck the city of Kahramanmaras, southeastern Turkey. Adam Altan / Getty Images

The enormity of the disaster clearly shook Erdogan. It took some time for him to appear in public, and many of his statements and travels in the affected areas focused on the protection and administration of the state. Predictably, he began to look for the “culprits,” that is, the low-quality builders and thieves whom he could accuse and thus deflect blame.

It is hard to imagine that the region can recover enough to hold elections. It is not only the destruction of property and the loss of life that is the challenge, but also the fact that many residents are likely to disperse across Turkey seeking shelter with family and friends. Of the four affected provinces – Adiyaman, Gaziantep, Hatay and Kahramanmaras – only in Hatay did Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) win a majority of votes in the 2018 parliamentary elections. (It was still the first party). These are his votes that he will lose in the next contest.

More about:

Middle East and North Africa

Syria

turkey

Syrian Civil War

Recep Tayyip Erdogan

The problem facing Erdogan is that he can only postpone the elections to June 18, the latest possible date. An extra month wouldn’t significantly improve conditions on Earth. The constitution stipulates that only during a state of war can elections be postponed for up to a year. However, Erdogan hinted that these elections may take place a year from now along with the scheduled municipal elections. He has complete control over the institutions of the state and society, especially the judiciary. Therefore, he can devise a solution in his favor.

However, it is difficult to assess the course of the political repercussions of this earthquake. There will be more to come and they are unlikely to be linear and predictable. With a myriad of economic problems facing the country, Erdogan was already in the midst of the toughest re-election battle of his life before the earthquake, though he appeared to be holding his ground by manipulating the legal system and eliminating opponents, politicians and parties. The earthquake will surely turn the voters’ calculations upside down. Despite his political skills, Erdogan faces a ruthless tsunami of discontent.

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos