Seismologists warn that Himalayan earthquake “late”

A scene from the 2005 earthquake: Pic

Seismologists are increasingly concerned about at least one major earthquake in the Himalayas “overdue in the region” and warned that mountain towns like Shimla as well as cities on plains like New Delhi are unfortunately unprepared for a massive earthquake

The last major earthquake in the Himalayas was the 2015 Nepal earthquake of 7.8 megawatts, killing nearly 9,000 people and injuring 22,000. The earthquake devastated large parts of the capital, Kathmandu.

According to an article in Livemint, the earthquake was strong enough to turn Kathmandu south by 1.5 meters, and was not as big an earthquake as the one measuring Mw8. However, he has identified the ground conditions that make a much larger earthquake, a “major earthquake”, more appropriate.

Seismologists are not sure when the “big” will come. It can happen any time soon or within a few hundred years. But they insist that the country will be ready sooner rather than later.

The 2015 Nepal earthquake was caused by the continuous tectonic collision of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate. The three major fault lines in the Himalayas combine tremendous stress due to tectonic movements.

Unfortunately for residents, earthquakes are the most effective way to release this stress and tension. Really large and rare earthquakes will be required from Mw8 and above, the so-called “crack” rupture to relieve the pressure that has accumulated.

Roger Pelham, a geologist at the Cooperative Institute for Environmental Science Research (Cires) University of Colorado Boulder, wrote in a review paper that over the past 500 years, there had not been enough large earthquakes (Mw8 and above) to relieve the accumulated pressure in departments Great Himalayan Arch.

In 100 years, the accumulated strain will need Mw8.6 earthquake to be released. In 350 years, the Mw9 earthquake will be required.

The most recent major earthquake in India in Kashmir in 2005 (Mw7.6) killed 86,000 people on both sides of the Line of Control.

Seismologists are increasingly confirming that the major earthquakes in the Himalayas over the past 100 years have only carried a larger strain where they have occurred, making the Great Quake more “necessary” to relieve the resilient pressure build up in errors but are unsure of where the next Great Quake will hit.

Earthquakes remain largely a blind spot in India’s disaster resilience planning.

In September 2019, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) published a report on the Earthquake Disaster Risk Index (Edri) that specifically looked at 50 cities including metro and cities in Seismic Areas IV and V (the two most active regions in India). Among the surveyed cities, 30 cities (including Delhi) are at medium risk and 13 (most are in Himalayas, including Shimla) at high risk.

Delhi also faces a high risk since most of the city is self-built, without technical inputs making it vulnerable to high-intensity tremors.

In June, the Delhi Supreme Court took a severe case against the Delhi government and civil bodies for failing to implement the plan of action to ensure the seismic stability of buildings in the national capital.

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