Do US sanctions on Syria stop aid after the earthquake?

A man using a wheelchair moves along a rubble-strewn street destroyed by an earthquake in Jinder, Syria, on February 16, 2023.

Photo: Anas Al-Kharboutli/AP Images

In the past decade, the Syrian people have endured unparalleled hardships from war and mass displacement. Earlier this month, Syrians were struck by yet another catastrophe as a historic earthquake destroyed entire towns in Turkey and Syria, burying tens of thousands under rubble.

The desperate need for humanitarian aid has reignited debate over US sanctions against Syria and whether the US government should lift them to speed up rescue and relief efforts. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime is using the earthquake to renew calls for sanctions to be lifted — a call echoed by some progressive and Arab-American groups and activists in the United States.

The issue is contentious, with critics of the Assad regime arguing that the sanctions protect Syrians from further harm by depriving the government of resources to rearm and launch a military campaign against the millions of people living in opposition-held areas hardest hit by the earthquake. .

The system has caused thousands of times more damage to the country than the last earthquake. The voices that are coming now to demand the lifting of sanctions on the government are either cynical or simply don’t know what’s going on in Syria, said Wael Al-Zayyat, CEO of Emgage, an American Muslim advocacy organization, and a former Middle East official. Eastern policy expert at the US State Department.

In 2019, the United States passed the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which imposed harsh penalties on the Syrian economy after revelations of torture and mass executions in government prisons by a Syrian military defector named Caesar, who provided thousands of photos of dead detainees to foreigners. detectives. Sanctions have effectively cut Syria off from the global economy, leaving it dependent on a handful of allies like Russia and Iran.

“The main factor holding back humanitarian aid is not sanctions. It is the fact that Bashar al-Assad is just a thief.”

Last week, the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control authorized a 180-day sanctions waiver so that humanitarian aid organizations could conduct earthquake recovery work in Syria without fear of legal repercussions. The Syrian government recently opened two border crossings to allow aid to flow into rebel-held parts of its territory, although some local armed groups have said they will reject any aid coming through Damascus, the capital.

Despite the sanctions, the Syrian government has benefited from UN aid programs that have provided vital resources to people in government-controlled areas, while at the same time helping to support corrupt and abusive businesses associated with the regime.

“Sanctions affect the humanitarian response, but the impact is greatly exaggerated and mostly offset by the fact that the vast majority of aid that reaches Syria – most of which goes to regime-controlled Syria – comes from the same countries that impose those sanctions,” said Karam Shaar, A political economist specializing in Syria and a non-resident fellow at the Middle East Institute. The Syrian regime withdraws aid and sells it on the black market to enrich its friends.

“The main factor impeding humanitarian aid is not sanctions,” he added. “It is a fact that Bashar al-Assad is just a thief.”

Even before the devastating earthquake, Syria was reeling from an economic crisis that began with the outbreak of civil war in 2011. In government-controlled areas, including Damascus, ordinary people could count on only a few hours of electricity a day, with no necessities like gas available. Mostly heating fuel. The war has left Syria’s infrastructure in ruins, with little prospect of reconstruction on the horizon. Meanwhile, its currency has effectively collapsed, leading to hyperinflation that has pushed an estimated 90 percent of the population below the poverty line. The situation is worse for the millions of Syrians who live in rebel-held areas or who have been displaced to refugee camps in Turkey and Lebanon, where they live on the edge of survival.

The war has effectively divided the country into different regions that depend on scant international aid to survive, while the rest of the world has largely abandoned Syria to focus on other conflicts.

In the early years of the war, when human rights agencies sought to provide aid to Syria, the biggest challenge they faced was often the regime itself, which wanted to control who and where they had access. Rana B. said: Khoury, assistant professor of political science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign whose research focuses on international aid and civic activism during the Syrian conflict.

Sanctions on the Syrian economy, often criticized by United Nations experts, have discouraged international companies from doing business in the country, even as government-linked firms continue to profit from contracts with foreign aid agencies and friendly governments. While the sanctions contain humanitarian exceptions, their broad nature has often resulted in foreign banks being excessively risk-compliant. Out of fear, they often refuse to process any transactions dealing with Syria — even if that means depriving civilians of basic necessities.

“After the earthquake, it took several days for aid to make its way into northwestern Syria, which is under opposition control, fueling a desperate situation for a population that was mostly internally displaced people who had lost everything before. At the same time, you have this parallel world in the territory you control. It is the government where people also need it most,” Khoury said. “This situation is not entirely due to the sanctions, but they certainly exacerbated it.”

Syria’s economic turmoil has fueled hopes in some quarters that the government will simply collapse under pressure. A recent Foreign Policy article noted that wages and basic services have collapsed in government-controlled areas to the point that “many people are now burning pistachio husks, rubber and even excrement to keep warm at home.” But a regime that has already shown its willingness to kill in huge numbers to maintain its political control is unlikely to face an existential threat anytime soon from its people, now worn down by a decade of war and grinding poverty.

The lull in violence is partly due to the impact of sanctions and foreign interventions that have frozen the battle lines between the regime and the opposition.

While Syria is not entirely peaceful and there is no political reconciliation to end the war, calm has now prevailed for some years between the Syrian government and opposition groups. This calm is partly due to the impact of sanctions and external interventions that have frozen the battle lines between the regime and the opposition.

If the sanctions are lifted, the Assad regime is expected to rearm and attempt to retake territory now controlled by Kurdish and Sunni Arab groups. Millions of people live in these effectively autonomous regions, and renewed war there could risk sparking a new wave of the refugee crisis that began in 2015.

“The purpose of these sanctions is not regime change,” said Zayat of Emgage. “The aim is to limit the government’s ability to harm people in opposition-held areas by depriving it of the hard currency it needs to buy MiG fighter jets and tanks and rearm its militias.”

The Assad regime has been unwilling to negotiate any curtailment of its power since the start of the war – an obstinate attitude that has effectively doomed Syria to its current misery. In the eyes of its advocates, sanctions remain one of the last tools available to force the regime into agreeing to a permanent peace treaty with what remains of the opposition.

“There may be dedicated efforts for a formal national ceasefire that results in power-sharing and an end to the conflict,” Zayat said. If the regime agrees, the lifting of sanctions could be used as an economic and political incentive.

A view of the city of Jenderes, Syria, on February 16, 2023, after the earthquake.

Photo: Rami El-Sayed / Nour Photo for the Associated Press

While the United States remained hostile to the Syrian regime, many Middle Eastern countries previously committed to overthrowing Assad have begun to embrace him again, including such close US partners as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

Their position is based on cold pragmatism. As much as the Assad government deserves to be consigned to the dustbin of history for its crimes, many of its neighbors have concluded that it is unlikely that Assad will be overthrown anytime soon or relinquish control over the millions of people who live under his rule. This reality has created a quandary for regime opponents who seek justice for Syria but want to minimize the collateral damage sanctions cause to ordinary Syrians.

Advocates say any easing of economic sanctions must be accompanied by political talks that end the Syrian conflict once and for all.

“This puts us, as Syrians opposed to the Syrian regime, in a political and moral dilemma,” said the political economist. If we know that Western countries are not really investing in a political solution in Syria, should we continue to support sanctions? I’m not sure we should – or at least not sanction the current regime.”

Al-Shaer recently co-authored a blog post for the Atlantic Council, arguing that US sanctions should target front companies and other financial instruments the regime uses to generate money, while removing sector-wide restrictions on the Syrian economy that have exacerbated the suffering. of ordinary Syrians.

Above all, advocates say, any easing of economic sanctions must be accompanied by political talks that end the Syrian conflict for good, rather than simply providing funds to fuel a return to war.

We can agree that sanctions affect the Syrian people. Nobody can say they don’t. But the Syrian people are also hostages of this regime. “If the sanctions are lifted today, the war will flare up again,” Zayat said. “In the absence of a political solution for the seven million Arabs and Kurds living in the north of the country, it will only empower Assad and harm the Syrians.”

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