Scientists: Time is running out to save Istanbul from a major earthquake

ISTANBUL — Devastating earthquakes in southeast Turkey have sounded alarm bells about slow preparations for a long-running, terrifying earthquake in Istanbul that scientists say is likely in the near future, with potentially catastrophic consequences for the country’s most populous historic city and economic hub.

The February 6 quakes, with a magnitude of 7.8 and 7.6, killing more than 43,500 people and destroying thousands of buildings in 11 provinces, were the deadliest in earthquake-prone Turkey since two strong tremors hit northwestern regions near Istanbul in 1999, claiming About 20,000 people.

Since 1999, seismologists have warned that Istanbul itself is at risk of a major earthquake in the near future due to seismic stress building up in the city’s vicinity under the Sea of ​​Marmara on the western end of the North Anatolian Fault, one of the most active fault lines in the world.

62% probability

Noting in statements to the T24 news site this week, Nasi Gürur, a famous Turkish seismologist, indicated that scientific research after the 1999 earthquakes determined the probability of a 62% occurrence of the Great Istanbul Earthquake within 30 years. Twenty-three years have passed and we still have to prepare adequately. Time is running out as the pressure on this error builds up day by day. So the more time passes, the greater our fears.

According to Jalal Senghor, another leading seismologist, the predicted rupture is likely to result in two back-to-back earthquakes of magnitude 7.2, or a single tremor of magnitude 7.6 to 7.8. In an additional threat to Istanbul’s seaside neighborhoods, there is also a risk of a tsunami with a height of up to eight meters (26 feet), Gungur told Kafa TV’s YouTube channel this week.

Some scientists, such as geophysics professor Ahmet Erkan, suspect that the big tremor is as close as most of their colleagues think. Erdan argues, “It will be a surprise if the anticipated Istanbul earthquake occurs before 2045.”

However, many do not agree on the massive devastation that a strong tremor will wreak on the densely populated city unless the authorities take urgent measures to empty or rehabilitate the tens of thousands of buildings at risk. These concerns are fueling Turkey’s chronic problem of shoddy construction and poor enforcement of building codes, which are blamed on corruption and nepotism. In the aftermath of the 1999 earthquakes, Turkey tightened building regulations and introduced earthquake-resistant standards, but many modern buildings still collapsed in the February 6 earthquakes, raising concerns that other new buildings declared as earthquake-resistant may not be reliable. also.

Istanbul has an official population of 16 million, but the real number is estimated to be around 20 million. Counting in neighboring provinces such as Kocaeli, Bursa and Tekirdag, a strong earthquake in Istanbul is likely to directly affect 28 million people, a third of Turkey’s population, not to mention the far-reaching economic ripples of devastation in the country’s industrial and financial heart. .

Official figures show that Istanbul alone contributes 30% of Turkey’s GDP. The share rises to nearly 45% with the contribution of the surrounding areas, which are also home to major industrial clusters.

unpreparedness

Gurkan Akgün, head of city planning and urban affairs at the Istanbul Municipality, told Al-Monitor that the number of buildings in Istanbul reached 1,020,000 as of 2022. Of these, 73% were built before 1999 and house about 10 million people.

Akgün said that it is estimated that 90,000 buildings will collapse or be severely damaged in the expected major earthquake in the city, while another 170,000 will suffer moderate damage. He added that about 5 million people are expected to be directly affected by the collapsed or damaged buildings, most of which were constructed before 1999.

“We are facing a very worrying situation,” Akgün said. We need serious mobilization to renovate the city. And everyone must take responsibility, including all state institutions, the capital municipality, county municipalities, and citizens.”

“We have a long way to go, but time is running out,” he warned.

Istanbul’s municipality has been controlled by the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) since winning the city’s 2019 mayoral election, ending the 25-year rule of the ruling Justice and Development Party and its Islamist predecessors.

So-called urban transformation efforts, aimed at ensuring earthquake resistance, have been underway in Istanbul and other cities in recent years, but progress has been slow, not least because many residents lack the means to cover the cost of demolishing and rebuilding apartment buildings. Or purchase units in newly constructed buildings.

To illustrate the extent of the devastation that the expected Istanbul earthquake could cause in the current circumstances, Gurur says that removing an estimated 35 million tons of rubble alone could take three to five years.

“The expected earthquake in Istanbul will stop the wheel of the economy across the Marmara region. The business community can hardly claim to be prepared for the earthquake,” he told a gathering of businessmen earlier this week.

He warned that “with the economic wheels stopping in the Marmara region, Turkey will fall to its knees economically.”

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