Why did 760 earthquakes rock the North Island town in the past few days, and what does that mean?

A “swarm” of hundreds of earthquakes has rocked the area around the Bay of Plenty in the city of Kaweru in recent days, with some tremors reaching magnitudes over 4.0.

While swarms of earthquakes are not overly rare in the region, the magnitude of some of the shaking has caught the attention of scientists. Here’s the latest info from GNS about the swarm and what’s likely to happen next.

How common are such swarms?

The current earthquakes in Kaweru are consistent with the historical activity in the area. Swarms of locusts were a common feature in the central volcanic region, though swarms of magnitude 4.0 events like the current episode were “relatively infrequent,” GNS said.

There were swarms in Kaweru district in 2018 and 2019. These two swarms lasted for several days, during which several hundred events were recorded.

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How many large earthquakes have occurred in recent days?

GeoNet says there were eight quakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher over the weekend. The last of them was Sunday morning.

How many earthquakes have occurred?

GNS said more than 760 had been registered by 10 a.m. Monday. Many of them were less than 5 km deep.

There was no scientific way to know for sure how long the swarm would last, but activity will likely decrease in the next few days.

GNS Science

Depth and magnitude of earthquakes in Kaweru district between Friday and Sunday

What is a swarm earthquake?

Swarms are a group of earthquakes of approximately the same magnitude, occurring in a defined area, usually over a short period of time (hours to days to weeks). GNS says swarms do not usually have a major shock or larger earthquake starting the sequence.

Will this swarm lead to a bigger earthquake?

“We can’t predict earthquakes, so we can never say for sure that a larger earthquake won’t happen – these are the shaking islands,” says GNS.

“However, by far the most likely scenario is that the level of seismic activity will decrease over the coming days.”

supplied

The bottles were smashed off the shelves at the Kawarau Super Liquor on Saturday morning.

Is this swarm related to volcanic or geothermal processes?

Although it is a geothermal zone, it would be very rare for geothermal activity to trigger such large magnitude earthquakes, says GNS. The location of the swarm is outside a volcanic area, so there is no indication of volcanic disturbances, nor is it related to recent disturbances at Taupo or Ruapehu.

Given the tectonic setting, history of swarm activity, and natural rift mechanisms that have been identified for some of the larger events, this swarm is most likely due to movement on active faults.

Is this activity related to a specific error?

Earthquakes of this magnitude are not regularly associated with a particular fault, in part because of uncertainties in location and depth, and in part because fractures that are fairly small can host events like this, GNS says.

Several faults and break systems are set in the area, which was to be expected given the location.

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