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Edinburgh experts say the new equation “can expect earthquakes better”
Image source EPA Image caption Earthquakes – such earthquakes in Croatia – can cause devastating damage
Researchers in Edinburgh have produced a new mathematical model that can improve how earthquakes are predicted.
Geologists are based at the Lille Center, a partnership between Heriot-Watt University and the British Geological Survey (BGS).
They wanted to use math instead of using laboratory experiments.
The aim was to predict the strength of the main rock type that lies at the heart of errors in the Earth’s crust where earthquakes occur.
These are called phyllosilicates.
Dr. Sabine Den Hartog was working with collaborators from the Universities of Liverpool and Utrecht.
Phyllosilicates take the form of small plates or sheets.
Defining Operations
When they slide against each other under pressure, an earthquake begins.
The decisive factor is the friction force of the rock – the force needed to make a movement along an error.
Earthquakes begin with small, microscopic movements in the rock of the Velosilicate.
But from these small movements, massive and destructive powers can be unleashed.
Can we predict when and where earthquakes will strike?
The behavior of rocks can be examined in the laboratory.
But the deep conditions below the surface of the Earth are complex and difficult to reproduce.
This is where mathematical modeling comes in. It enables researchers to predict the force of friction of velosilicate in ways that cannot be achieved in the laboratory.
Image copyright Reuters Image caption New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern recently made headlines when she was interviewing during an earthquake.
“We analyzed the areas of synthetic defects on a microscopic scale, to determine the processes that occurred – such as the division of the ploselicate platy minerals,” says Dr. Den Hartog.
“Based on this, we have formulated a set of equations to predict how the frictional force of the silosics will change with changes in conditions such as humidity or velocity of error movement.”
The project was funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program.
I dig deeper
The results are published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.
The result is an equation that makes it easier for models to simulate how faults move, including during earthquakes – and they find that phyllosilicate is not the only type of rock that plays a role.
“Our model predicts that movement along fissile-rich regions of rift becomes more difficult as the movement progresses faster,” says Dr Den Hartog.
In some circumstances, she says, silosilias can actually prevent earthquakes: “We could not explain the relationship between the force that carries the error together and the force needed to move the error.”
This means that more research will be needed to improve the model.
In other words, they will have to dig deeper.
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