A city in the Bay Area is in danger of being destroyed when an overdue earthquake strikes

A magnitude 7 earthquake is likely to hit the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 10 years, according to the US Geological Survey, and when it does, Alameda could be hardest hit.

A new report from Mercury News reveals that despite efforts to protect the island city and its 80,000 residents, the largely man-made island is in danger of being destroyed when the Big One hits.

“All those apartment homes along the south shore, it’s all soup,” Dennis Ivanowski, a longtime resident and community historian, told the outlet, referring to the southern and western parts of the island. “…This is all man-made land. All of it. Including the schools.”

The threat of liquefaction—the devastating effect of shaking the ground in a loose landfill, causing it to behave like a liquid—will be familiar to those who remember the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. This tremor caused most of the damage in San Francisco’s Marina District, which was largely built into the landfill. Waste. The liquefaction of the land there has killed four people and severely damaged dozens of homes.

Alameda Island’s center is built on rocks, but the majority of the land closest to the water is built on silt and mud hauled from the bay in the 1920s to build what is now Alameda Air Force Station and the surrounding residential neighborhoods.

A major earthquake on the San Andreas Fault, which runs through San Francisco and caused the disaster in 1906, usually occurs every 200 years. However, the Hayward Fault that runs through East Bay, historically experiences a major earthquake every 150 years—most recently in 1868. At the time, only 24,000 people lived in Alameda County, and the 6.8-magnitude quake had claimed 30 lives. . It is estimated that an earthquake similar today could cause over $100 billion in damages to the county which now has 2.4 million residents.

According to the USGS, a 6.0-magnitude earthquake will be felt by all residents, and it will move furniture and some cracked walls. However, A 7.0 has the potential to break chimneys and severely damage poorly constructed structures.

Regarding Alameda Island, the Mercury News report also notes that there are only five roads in and out of the East Bay, and all of them are built on or under dangerous liquefaction areas.

Mitigation measures to mitigate the impact of the earthquake on the island, which has no reservoirs nearby, include the recent installation of a 3,000-foot water line between Oakland and Alameda by the East Bay Municipal Utilities District to provide drinking water during the disaster. Experts told the outlet that the only real solution to the expected devastation is to completely rebuild every neighborhood on the landfill.

“The Hayward Fault is the most urbanized seismic fault in the United States,” the USGS wrote in a recent study. “Scientists are convinced that the Hayward Fault has reached the point where a powerful and destructive earthquake can be expected at any time.”

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