USC research shows where, but not when

Researchers know a lot about the next big earthquake in Türkiye. They can determine the likely epicenter of an earthquake, estimate its strength and see the spatial footprint of where damage is most likely to occur.

They can’t say when that will happen.

Using remote sensing, USC geophysicist Sylvain Barbot and colleagues have documented the massive earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people in eastern Turkey on February 6 and toppled more than 100,000 buildings.

The white square indicates the “Pütürge seismic gap” which may host another magnitude 6.8 earthquake. The researchers note that the plates in the gap appear to be locked and not torn. The graphic also depicts the motion distribution over most of the faults in the earthquake series in February. The black dots indicate small size dependencies. (Graphic/Courtesy of the researchers)

Alarmingly, the researchers found that part of the fault remains unbroken and closed—a sign that the plates there, when friction intensifies, may generate another 6.8-magnitude earthquake when they finally collapse.

“We know very well what to prepare for. We don’t know the timing, but we know where it could happen,” said Barbot.

Major earthquakes are caused by the sliding of tectonic plates. Plates – slowly moving parts of the Earth’s crust – press against each other, building strength gradually over decades, centuries and eons. When the plates finally slide, the energy explodes in waves that travel through the Earth’s crust.

An earthquake of magnitude 7.8 occurred in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey on February 6, followed by an aftershock of magnitude 7.6 on a separate fault in the west. Another earthquake occurred two weeks later, with a magnitude of 6.4 on February 20. A plot of the data showed seismic activity and the amount of slip along the faults.

Türkiye’s next earthquake: Potorg in plain sight

The area below Turkey’s Pütürge region shows a swarm of seismic activity along the fault – but no slip. This means that some part of the bug is locked or stuck, but is likely to slip at some point – any time – in the future.

“What we’ve seen in the pictures of collapsed buildings is that some of them were pancakes, but some of them were literally crushed,” Barbot said. “That means another degree of failure; even the concrete itself disintegrated. There is a possibility that this earthquake may have caused more shaking than expected in the building codes. We won’t know without further research.”

“So we have this area where we can expect a magnitude 6.8 earthquake and two things can happen from here. The population needs to be prepared for that — but also the scientific community because it gives us an opportunity to set up a monitoring experiment to see how an earthquake starts and ends.”

More stories about: earthquakes, research

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