Use math formulas to predict earthquakes

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A team of researchers at the Lille Center in Edinburgh has developed a method for using mathematical formulas to help predict the time of an earthquake. In their research published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, the group describes the translation of the motion of a particular type of rock into mathematical equations, which led to the creation of a predictive formula.

Much time and effort has been spent over the past several decades trying to figure out a way to predict the timing of a major earthquake, but so far, these efforts have been short. In this new effort, researchers took another approach to the problem: using mathematics.

Researchers began their efforts with evidence that certain types of rock play a major role in earthquakes. A group called phyllosilicates is formed and formed in sheets or plates. The theory suggests that earthquakes occur when these rocks slide on each other. The researchers note that the force of friction is a determining factor in such a slip. It is defined as the force required to push one plate or plate against another sheet or plate. The friction force is something to be calculated. To find useful calculations, the researchers studied many samples of cellulitis and the ways in which they interact with each other under different conditions. Use what they have learned to develop equations that describe the behavior of these rocks deep in the earth, as they cannot be directly tested. After that, they took into account other variables such as humidity levels, error movement and the speed with which the earth can move in the error areas. After a lot of work with equations, researchers have developed a formula that they believe can be used in real-world situations to predict the timing of an earthquake in a particular location.

The researchers point out that their formula is still in work, noting that scientists are still figuring out how silicates behave under different scenarios. For example, they note that in some unusual places, silicates can actually stand in the way of earthquakes.

“Melting of rock” models predicts the mechanical origins of earthquakes. More information: J. Liu – Zeng et al. Post-seismic deformation after the 2015 Mw7.8 earthquake Gorkha (Nepal): new GPS data, kinetic and dynamic models, roles for back slip and viscous relaxation, Geophysical Research Journal: Solid Earth (2020). Doi: 10.1029 / 2020jb019852

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